Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Seeing the Blues!

While many did not get the white Christmas they dreamed of, we have heard more about the blues during first half of this Premier League season than anyone could have asked for.

“The blue moon rising” in Manchester has dominated headlines as City won the plaudits for their high pressing game, slick passing orchestrated by Silva and flurry of goals featuring the strange Balotelli character. Despite threatening to break every record in the league, those in the blue half of Manchester must be wondering what it takes to shake off the shadow of their red neighbours. Entering the New Year, it is shocking that the two Manchester clubs are level on points regardless of critical headlines about United’s unimaginative midfield and defence that looks so porous in the absence of inspirational Vidic.

Across in London, Man City’s wealthy blue cousin that microwaved their way to success over the last decade have a less revered story to tell about this season. Despite enjoying the most eye catching start to a managerial career, Villa Boas has at times demonstrated that he is still in “managerial diapers.” While qualification to the Champions League’s next round and ending Man City’s unbeaten start to the season are very impressive feats, some of Villa Boas’ decisions during the draw at Wigan’s DW Stadium were so naïve it calls for the highest level of optimism to believe in a Chelsea title for this season.

The pauper blue cousin in Mersey side has endured a very frustrating first half of the season as their brilliant manager continues to be crippled by budget limitations. Qualification for the Europa League is now viewed as “the good old days”! Everton fans are irked with envy as their red Mersey side rivals spend on an array of talent that makes them look like genuine contenders for a Champions League place.

The bottom end of the table has also featured its blues tale with Wigan and Blackburn battling to escape relegation. While both have recently enjoyed some impressive results against the so called traditional big four, it is consistency against the less illustrious bottom half of the table teams that will shape their destiny. What Martinez lacks for in financial resources has at least been compensated for with unity and support from the Wigan fans and owner. Blackburn’s Kean on the other hand has been hangout to dry by the club owners who have chickened out in the face of more viscous fan protests. Despite blowing a lot of hot air with talk about marquee signings at the start of their reign, no serious professional will be looking to join Blackburn’s relegation dog fight under owners that evidently have very limited knowledge about football.

My prediction about Wigan is that they are a cat with many lives and will enjoy another last day of the season escape as Rolladega and Dos Santos form an incredible striking partnership. Blackburn on the other hand have so much negative energy to contend with, not even Yakubu’s scoring feats will enable them to swim upstream. As they sink into the Championship, Big Sam will jubilantly wave at the Venky’s as he leads West Ham back to the Premiership.

While many of those craving a white Christmas were disappointed, the Championship will welcome two whites along with Blackburn. Bolton knew at the start of the season that they would struggle to make up for Elmander and Sturridge’s goals. Their defending has however been so awful, Bolton may as well cash in on Cahill, raise the white flag and start rebuilding for an immediate return from the Championship. As Wigan makes their dramatic last day of the season escape, it will be the swan song from the solitary Welsh side in the league. Formidable as their home record has been during the first half of the season, Swansea like Burnley a couple of seasons ago, play too pretty to mix it up in a relegation dog fight.

Have your say on which colours are likely to hug the headlines during the next half of the season. Whether your choice is blue, red, white or whatever other colour, for you, it is a special wish for a very prosperous 2012!

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Who will be blinded by The Dark Cloud in Manchester?

For all their early season talk about how close they were to Barcelona, last week a dark cloud descended upon Manchester’s illustrious clubs when they were eliminated from Europe’s major show piece. Despite premier league dominance during the early season, both United and City will now have to make do with the less glamorous Europa League. This week we explore which of the two clubs will be blinded by this dark cloud to derail their premier league campaign.

For City, elimination as Champions League novices from the group of death is excusable. They also have Europa League experience to draw from and arguably the deepest squad in Europe to manage the challenge of Thursday night and Sunday football better than their Manchester rivals.

United on the other hand, a three time winner and finalist in three of the last four seasons was very embarrassed by elimination from the most winnable of groups. As they demonstrated against Wolves last weekend, and previously following a 2003 first leg quarter final battering in Madrid, United are at their most dangerous after embarrassment.

City has such a deep squad it can afford to keep their players fresh all season for both Europe and domestic contest. United on the other hand has over nine first team players out injured, including Vidic, the glue that holds a sometimes leaky defense together. Ferguson has stressed that United do not need to feel sorry for themselves about the injuries and if he can navigate December with the team in touching distance of the league leaders, will stand a good chance of reclaiming the title. One can draw parallels between this season and the 2009/2010 season when players returning in the second half of the season propelled United from total obscurity to finish the season within a point of Chelsea.

Although the Europa League is one trophy that Ferguson has never won, we would be silly to think this will motivate him to prioritize it over the premier league. Despite reports that Ferguson has only not won this trophy because his teams have never been bad enough to compete in it, United did not even make the cut for Europa on the last two occasions they were eliminated from the group stages (1994 and 2005). Given their stretched player resources, United’s best hope for a sustained premier league challenge may be to dedicate the Europa League to academy and fringe players’ experience.

The biggest challenge for City at the start of the season was how to keep the egos of their overpaid stars in check. The Tevez Munich disaster did not just conclude his transformation from talisman to villain, but finally gave Mancini a chance to make his mark as the dressing room’s top dog.

Given that both United and City are likely to prioritize the premier league, it is very unlikely that the Europa league will shape their respective premier league destinies. With their high up the field pressing game recently showing frailties when countered with energy and pace, City’s collapse may depend on whether players of other teams will have the courage and discipline to implement this blue print. A few more losses may cause dressing room unrest as some of Mancini’s stars begin to question his strategy. Having played most of their premier league title rivals away from home in the first half of the season, City have the easier run in on paper. Despite enjoying a perfect home record thus far, City fans will be wary that their home record over many of their title rivals has not been flawless in recent seasons. United’s season on the other hand rests on how Ferguson addresses Vidic’s absence and a midfield that lacks a cutting edge.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

The Boiling Point: Who Gets Sacked Next?

First, I would like to extend my sympathies to football fans at a time when the football world has been stunned by the premature deaths of Garry Speed and the great Socrates. As Wales and Brazil mourn the losses of their most cherished sons, our thoughts and prayers are especially with the deceased’s families and friends.

On a less tragic but still painful note, during the last week, the Premier League witnessed its first managerial casualty in Steve Bruce of Sunderland. Having overhauled his entire squad following a season in which Sunderland flirted with European football, expectations were sky high. In all honesty, Sunderland had clearly lost their way since the loss of Darren Bent in the middle of last season. Coupled with the departure of Asamoah Gyan and the brilliant Danny Welbeck, it is of little surprise that they continue to struggle for goals. Unfortunately for Bruce, Nicholas Bendtner who was brought in on loan to compensate for these three has so far failed to deliver the goals when it matters.

With so much money at stake in the Premier League, many owners have recently adopted a ruthless approach that has left managers more vulnerable. December is usually the time for owners to decide whether to trust the incumbent with funds for squad reinforcement or if a total change of direction is necessary.

It is easy to mark out managers at clubs that are at the foot of the table as most susceptible, but in many ways, it is a case of being at the right club at the right time. Steve Kean one of the early favorites for the sack continues to defy the odds and was even recently rewarded with a new contract. Strange that the new owners got rid of Sam Allardyce when the club was comfortably in mid-table, citing his “lack of ambition”, but have continued to stand by Kean despite fans’ unrest. My prediction is that Steve will keep his job until a few weeks into the Championship season next year, when the owners will finally yield to fan pressure.

Speaking of fan unrest, Wolves and Everton are the other two premiership clubs that have had to deal with demonstrations. While the Wolves fans were demonstrating against McCarthy, Moyes at Everton is a fan favorite and all the noises are directed at the owners for lack of investment into the squad. My take is that both managers will be safe as they continue to mobilize their troops to punch above their weight.

If with the purchase of Blackburn, Big Sam was not at the right place at the right time; Martinez could not have timed his presence at Wigan any better. Firmly rooted at the foot of the table, probably as testament to Whelan’s understanding of the game, he is one owner that acknowledges that for their lack of investment, it is a bonus to simply stay in the division. The club fans are also so in love with Martinez, their former player and hero; one can’t help but feel that his job is safe. As a caution though, we don’t need to look further than Arsenal to recognize how fickle a manager’s relationship with fans can be.

Bolton is another struggling club that has a former player managing on a very meager budget. Owen Coyle started his reign by mixing great results with style but like Bruce at Sunderland; saw a late collapse as last season progressed. Also similarly, the loss of loan signing Daniel Sturridge coupled with the departure of Johan Elmander has deprived Bolton of a goal threat. Unlike Wigan though, I get a feeling that Premier League survival is paramount for Bolton’s owners and if results do not turn around soon, Owen will not survive the season.

While Wigan, Everton and Blackburn have together made a troubled season for teams with Blue home jerseys, their illustrious counterparts from London mainly have a trigger happy owner to be concerned about. Andre Villas-Boas continues to assure in the press that he is confident about the safety of his job, but Abromavich’s record of seven managers in eight years is reason for pessimism. Andre draws his confidence from the fact that he was signed for over £13 million on a three year contract but the sacking of many of his predecessors did not seem rational. Ranieri was sacked despite leading Chelsea to the Champions League semi-finals and second in the league to break the Man United – Arsenal stranglehold. Mourinho was sacked despite winning the club’s first title in over 50 years and retaining it the season that followed. Grant was sacked despite putting Chelsea within a whisker of their first ever Champions League title. Ancelotti was sacked despite winning the club’s first ever League and FA Cup double in his first season. This weekend’s win against Newcastle may have just bought Villas-Boas more time, but one fears the worst if Chelsea fails to win against Valencia this week.

Have your say on which club owners are likely to reach boiling point first and axe their manager in what is likely to be a crazy December.