EPL Predictions: Judgment Time!

EPL Predictions: Judgment Time!: When Louis van Gaal took charge of Manchester United, he attempted to curb fans’ high expectations for instant success with a warning that ...

Judgment Time!

When Louis van Gaal took charge of Manchester United, he attempted to curb fans’ high expectations for instant success with a warning that his methods usually bear fruit after three months.  After a very underwhelming start to his United career and with pundits holding the timeline against his head, Louis declared regret for making the statement. Whether the retraction buys Louis some respite or not, for all club managers, the one-third point of the season is when many club owners take stock and pass judgment on if adjustments need to be made to strengthen the team’s chances of winning the title, make the Champions League, qualify for Europe, attain mid-table safety or simply avoid relegation.

Despite starting the season in arguably the most vulnerable position, Sam Allardyce has probably done the most to strengthen his position by steering West Ham into European qualifying places by playing an expansive style of football that has even the most critical fans raving. On the other side was Brendan Rogers who arguably started the season in the strongest position as Manager-of-the-year, but with a series of disjointed performances has a questionable future at Liverpool.

If Rogers is seeking encouragement for his predicament, he needs to look no further than Alan Pardew at Newcastle. Despite massive protests with fans begging for his head as Newcastle started the season like a rapidly sinking titanic; five straight wins soon had Newcastle on the brink of Champions League places. Perhaps Alan’s experience is testament to all clubs that in such a tight league, the line between success and failure is so thin, both criticism and praise should be taken with a grain of salt.

Southampton and Chelsea are two teams that have rightly been heaped with praise for the start they have made to the season. Southampton have especially impressed beyond the imagination of even the most optimistic fans as a newly assembled team has so seamlessly adapted to the league, they look a sure bet for European qualification. Chelsea on the other hand have been so breath taking, they have already been labeled “Champions elect.” While Manchester City are now displaying signs of a resolute title defense, Jose Mourinho is portraying the kind of determination that Sir Alex Ferguson had in his last season in charge, when he won the title at a canter for Manchester United.

Manchester United has probably rightly been criticized for a slow start that included a shambolic collapse against Leicester City.  While mitigating factors like forty two injuries have helped keep United fans on Van Gaal’s side, the less highlighted poor performances by major rivals, has seen United creep into the targeted top four places almost unnoticed. Arsene Wenger managing one of the major challengers seems to be steadily losing fans’ support, as they expected last season’s FA Cup success to help Arsenal to kick on and become a major title challenger. As Tottenham, Everton and Liverpool all seem to be finally finding their rhythm after less than impressive starts to the season, it feels like we have a fascinating battle on our hands.

Speaking of hands, unfortunately the fate of many teams will be unjustly determined by referees. The introduction of goal line technology may have helped eliminate the risk of “ghost goals” but diving has already led to the award of unfair penalties and red cards. With the threat of officiating errors likely to determine the fate of certain teams, club owners may have to rely on Napoleon’s wisdom to determine whether to keep their managers “I know he's a good general, but is he lucky?” 

The Next Chapter

With so many club owners and managers referring to their clubs’ ambitions as a project, this season appears to be a new chapter for most. More than just the record expenditure on new signings, this season has started with radical change for a number of clubs.

Southampton endured the most challenging of summers as they involuntarily lost a plethora of their stars and the manager who impressively led their charge to the brink of European football. Contrary to pre-season predictions that they would be battling relegation this season, the Saints have emphatically forced pundits to swallow their evaluations by ridding to the lofty position of second in the Premier League table. Will new manager Ronald Koeman sustain the momentum for the entire season and lead Southampton to the next phase of their project by qualifying for European football?

When they closed the transfer window with the signing of two truly world class gems, Manchester United thought they had forced pundits to swallow their pre-season doom predictions. In truth, after very impressive pre-season games and with a very remarkable World Cup behind the new manager, it looked like the pundits had been quickly converted into believers. Despite some jaw dropping attacking play, one win in the first five games of the season has not helped to keep the critics away and they are sounding louder than ever. Will new manager Louis van Gaal continue his legacy of turning very slow starts into successful first seasons? Champions League qualification is mandated after the lavish outlay on rebuilding the post-Ferguson United.

With a look of determination akin to Sir Alex Ferguson’s in his final season at United, Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho is expected to complete the transformation his “little horse” from last season into a champion. Having enjoyed one of the most prudent transfer windows, Chelsea have overwhelmed all that has crossed their path on their way to establishing an early strong lead in the Premier League table. While titles have been synonymous with Mourinho, he has to turn a page from his pragmatic profile by delivering this season’s title with stylish play.

Considered the protagonist of pragmatic play, Big Sam Allardyce is required to return West Ham United’s traditionally stylish play with a minimum of top half of the table finish. Despite leading the Hammers back to the top tier of English football and consolidating their position in the league, the fans have never warmed up to Big Sam. It will be some turn around if he can not only hold onto his position for the entirety of this season but finally get the fans to sing his name in the terraces.

If Jose and Sam need to look anywhere for a model of stylish play, they need to look no further than another of their London rivals. Having transformed Arsenal from the most pragmatic side in English football, Arsene Wenger has consistently delivered football in its most aesthetic form over the last eighteen years. After a couple of big money signings in recent seasons, and a first trophy to end a nine year drought, Arsenal fans will accept a little pragmatism if it will finally deliver a first league title in almost 10 years.

Merseyside has the other two managers who are synonymous with delivering aesthetic football. Having appeared to deliver his with a lot more end product than Arsenal, Brendan Rogers finally had Liverpool fans dreaming of a return to the glory days they last enjoyed in 1992. Having signed almost ten players to compensate for the departure of maverick Louis Suarez and the return of Champions League football, the next step in Liverpool’s progress is the League title. After a very slow start that has seen them lose three of their first five games this season, Liverpool are steadily revising their goals back to another season of Champions League qualification and a major trophy. Achieving this objective may have to be at the expense of Everton, their bitter Merseyside rivals who will be hoping to go one better than last season and make it into the coveted top four.

Will the clubs that successfully progress to their next chapter be those that have had a great start to the season or will the slower starters build a head of steam to overhaul the early season pace setters? This weekend’s North London and Merseyside derbies may be the start of the season long battle to settle this debate.

Defying the Critics

Numerous champions have ironically attributed the inspiration for their success to criticism; even that intended to bring them down. At the dawn of this new Premier League season, many clubs will be anxiously rubbing their hands at the opportunity to defy critics.

Southampton is arguably the team that has suffered the most ridicule this summer as they have overseen an exodus of six star players and the manager credited with their remarkable season. While most pundits predict that their new look squad led by a novice manager to the Premier League will descend from the echelons of challenging for European football to a relegation dog fight, Ronald Koeman will be determined to prove that he has the managerial wit to be a Premier League hit. Southampton’s cause may be helped by Crystal Palace’s crazy decision to part ways with the manager who impressively transformed their season from certainties for relegation to the brink of a top half of the table finish. The wisdom of West Brom’s decision to offer Alan Irvine his first managerial assignment will also be tested especially after their ostracized sacking of the highly regarded Steve Clarke.

While West Brom’s Alan has a blank slate to fill, Newcastle’s Alan has a dark slate to clean. On top of embarrassing the club and his managerial colleagues with an unprovoked head-butt of an opposition player, Alan Pardew oversaw a dreadful run in the second half of last season that included six straight defeats. After enduring very loud boos from his own fans and most pundits begging for his head, Alan will want to make the most of the miracle that he is still in a job by turning around the fans’ opinion of him.

If any manager can think that Pardew is in an enviable position, it is Sam Allardyce who can never do enough to win the support of West Ham’s owners and fans. He may have got the club promoted and helped establish them in the Premier League with two decent end-of-season table standings, but his efficient playing style is being held against him. Although none of his previous teams have been renowned for playing with flair, the club owners have bought the players they feel should enable him to do more than just win, as they need him to do it with style. Most pundits have him together with Aston Villa’s Paul Lambert as odds on favorites for the sack. Big Sam will be extra motivated to prove that with the right resources, he has the coaching ability deliver the silky football to turn around his club’s apparently insatiable fans.

Probably the most inspired outfit contending at the top end of the table will be Manchester United. After enjoying peerless dominance for twenty odd years, United’s players suffered unfathomable ridicule in a limp season they will be eager to forget. Given that the blue moneybags in Manchester and London have added so much quality to their already lavish squads, qualifying for the Champions League may be as far as inspiration can get this United squad. Standing in United’s way will be a finally munificent Arsene Wenger and Brendan Rogers who has already made ten new signings. Wenger will be inspired to prove that Arsenal’s nearly decade long trophy drought was merely enforced by the club’s long term investment in a stadium rather than a sign that he has been surpassed by modern day coaching.  Rogers on the other hand will be motivated to prove that his self-belief is not misplaced and that he is leading a genuine Liverpool renaissance that will not be halted by the departure of a single troubled player.

The highlighted clubs, their players and managers may face different challenges to defy their critics but they all approach the new season with renewed optimism and defiance that they believe will help them upset the odds. In the dog-eat-dog World that the Premier League is, it has to be at the expense of another that one can realize their objective. Who will have the last laugh?

A Season of Compromise

When arguably the most successful manager in the history of team sports makes a decision to step down after managing your team for over a generation, you expect to make a few compromises as his replacement adjusts to fit the enormous boots.

As Mr. Moyes stumbled through the first couple of months at Old Trafford, I had been conditioned to trust the old master’s judgment. After all, critics had questioned Sir Alex Ferguson’s judgment with Ronaldo when he seemed to be a one trick pony and De Gea when he seemed to consistently flap at crosses into the box, but both have since risen to modestly speaking, “world class status”.

I was unflustered by the relentless negative headlines about the crumbling records at Old Trafford because I trusted that a meticulous Mr. Moyes would continue to learn from the flaws of the first period of the season to deliver a sudden charge into the top 4. I was confident that he would then build on this for a sustained challenge next season with may be a cup win and then finally deliver the title in the season that would follow.

While many chose to focus on the demise of what was a team sports brand benchmark, I celebrated the little progress we seemed to be making. The best away record in the league, clean sheets, more coordinated attacking play and a disciplined performance against the European champions. I celebrated the class displayed by United fans sticking with their team when all other fans would have been baying for the manager’s head.

As the season draws to a close, it is unfortunate that someone leaked to the press about Mr. Moyes’ impending sack before he was officially notified, diminishing the class that has made this great club the bench mark of team sports brands. With the possibility of a 4^th place finish all but extinguished by the time of his sacking, I was caught at a cross roads about how Europa league football would potentially impact our rebuilding next season. While a part of me had been reduced to cheering for Europa qualification, I am not mourning our shortfall because I see the positive of avoiding the stress it traditionally brings on league form.

Embarrassing as it is, this season has reduced me to cheering the shortfalls of some of our major rivals. For all the disdain I have about Mourinho’s style, I continue to hold hope that he will win the title against the odds, because I consider Chelsea the lesser evil of the three title challengers. More realistically though, as I have come to accept that the title will be won by one of the two teams I would most hate to succeed, I have painfully found myself cheering for our noisy neighbors.

While the press and Liverpool try to convince themselves that they are the neutrals’ pick for the title, I have come to hideously accept that I am not one of the neutrals. As some consolation to me, I have learned that fans of many other teams are quietly hoping that Liverpool fall short for different reasons.

Of course there is Everton because of their Mersey side rivalry; Chelsea and Arsenal would be better placed to explain their shortfalls by Man City’s unfair financial outlay on player purchases; and Tottenham’s own lack of progress on the pitch will be less exposed if Liverpool, a recent traditional Europa league qualifying peer did not suddenly surge to the title. In my case, it is probably a matter of pride and bragging rights that I would like to celebrate superior league success history with 20 titles versus 18 titles for Liverpool.

The compromise I have learned to make this season has fortunately given me a few of my own team’s positives to celebrate as the season draws to an end. Stacked in tradition, not only do we have several legends serving as club ambassadors, it gives me so much pride to see the famed “Class of 92” on the bench helping groom the next generation of super stars. Despite some of our more promising emerging stars playing out on loan, it is also very pleasing to see our U-21 team make it to the finals with a real possibility of bringing in some silver ware. Yes, such is the level of my compromise that for the first time ever, I would enthusiastically celebrate winning the U-21 trophy!

Keeping the Smile on the Red Half of Manchester

This season, Manchester United fans have had to endure more ridicule and heart break than they could ever have imagined. It has been such a painful adjustment to life after Ferguson, Moyes’ proclamation that he has not given the fans nearly enough to cheer is such an understatement. Time and again, United fans have been crashed as Old Trafford has been turned into a theater where visiting “also runs” have celebrated dream success and dropped heads of Moyes’ charges have become a familiar sight.

As in the past couple of decades, United has continued to grab headlines, but this season they have all been negative and predictions have been of nothing but gloom. As every dark cloud has a silver lining, here are five reasons for Manchester United fans keep smiling and enjoy the rest of the season:

1.       Manchester United without dispute boasts the best fans in the game!

Earlier in the season when Wayne Rooney was probably considering agitating for a move, hearing cheers when he may have expected to be booed by United fans probably settled him to deliver one of his most influential seasons.

Despite the disappointing run start to Moyes’ era, United fans continue to travel in large numbers to away grounds and many times out sing their host fans. Nowhere else will fans continue to sing the manager’s name and encourage their troops after a record breaking run of disappointing results.

2.       Consider it a great compliment that so many rivals are celebrating United’s re-adjusting pain.

If you were on the other side of a team that had won nearly forty major trophies in twenty-three years, you probably would celebrate as wildly as the opposition are.

That the falling records stood as long as they did is a measure of how great the club is. Keep track of how long the record stood and remember every record is bound to come to an end at some point any way.

3.       Constant press criticism goes to show that United is the standard of English football.

Last season when Manchester United comfortably won the league with a double digit point’s lead, they were the worst United team of Ferguson’s era. Between 2007 and 2009 when United won three successive league titles and made it to consecutive Champions League finals, they were not as good as the 1999 treble winners.

The press will always be critical of Manchester United so this season’s criticism should not be unsettling to fans – it only goes to show that United are the true standard of English football.

4.       Celebrate even the small successes.

In a season where United players have connived to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory, success should not be taken for granted. Celebrate every victory like a cup final, progression to Champions League knockout stages like a semi-final appearance, and if United can snatch the fourth and final Champions League place, celebrate like Wenger has done over the last few seasons.

For a team that carries the average talent of Cleverly and Buttner, celebrate the signing of world class talent (Mata) and the unearthing of exciting young talent (Januzaj) like the re-birth of Cantona and Best.

5.       No team will be close enough to threaten United’s record league titles at season end.

As long as Liverpool are not surprise winners of this season’s title, none of the title contenders will get close enough to threaten Manchester United’s record twenty league titles.

Based on current league standings, Arsenal only has thirteen, Manchester City three and Chelsea has four. Liverpool success would leave them only one short of United’s record haul of league titles.

Although United fans had become accustomed to celebrating much more, these are just a few reasons for fans to hold their heads up, wear their jerseys, keep their smile and enjoy the rest of the season.

Conclusions about this Season’s Title Contenders

With changes in management and playing personnel at England’s largest clubs, this was expected to be the most open title race. Mourinho has often been quoted saying that any of six teams could win this season’s title. Aside from gate crushing Everton, those six teams now occupy the top positions in the league.

At exactly the mid-way point of this season’s race, of the six tipped teams, you could say that Manchester United and Tottenham have so far had disappointing seasons while Arsenal and Liverpool have been amazing. To put into perspective just how fickle applauds during the course of a season can be, Liverpool this season’s Christmas Champions now seat in lowly fifth place just two points above the disappointing duo.

Arsenal on the other hand has returned to the summit! Against Newcastle, Wenger showed that Arsenal is now willing to compromise their silky DNA for a Stoke-like approach if it will allow them to cling onto three valuable points. Such a display of hunger for the title justifies tipping Arsenal as genuine title contenders. On the flip side, I must warn Arsenal fans that contrary to reports that he is on the verge of signing a contract extension, such drive for success at all costs may point to a planned Wenger exit with a bang. He has the look that I saw in Feguson’s eyes last season, especially when United were playing against Real Madrid in the Champions League.

Despite Arsenal’s presence at the top of the league, most pundits are tipping Manchester City as favorites for this season’s title. Inconsistent away from home during the first half of the season, City now seem to be settling into their stride and are lurking just a point behind the summit. The ease with which City blew away Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium will give them a lot of confidence entering into the second half of the season. It is now an increasingly popular saying especially adopted by Arsenal fans that this league will be won by consistently beating teams in the lower half of the table rather than beating the big six. While partially true that consistency against the course of the entire race will determine the winner of this marathon, loosing against a major rival is such a big blow, “six-pointer” is no exaggeration.

Although not many pundits agree with me at this point of the season, I rate Chelsea as City’s major rivals for the title. While Arsenal and Liverpool have already been consistently playing out of their skins, Chelsea have remained “there abouts” without quite impressing, of course until last weekend against Liverpool. Mourinho has used the first half of this season to down play his sides chances and keep all the pressure off what he considers to be a very inexperienced group of players. A master of mind games, he will try to get under the skin of those he considers to be major threats for the title and this could just unsettle the opposition. You would think that Pelligrini is experienced and diplomatic enough not to be sucked in but he has never quite faced the brunt of Mourinho’s tactics. Chelsea’s misfiring strikers are also likely to pick up in the second half of the season as Mourinho’s public criticism inspires them to finally start scoring.

While Rodgers has tremendously improved this Liverpool’s performances from last season, I think he and his squad are just too inexperienced to win the title this season. Facing the challenge of a tenacious Everton as well as resurgent Manchester United and Tottenham, holding on for a top four finish will be as good as Liverpool are genuinely in contention for. However, if Rodgers keeps improving Liverpool at this pace, they are likely to be genuine contenders for next season’s title.

In conclusion, this season’s title is Man City’s to loose, Chelsea’s to win and Arsenal’s to grab. City boasts the most complete squad; Chelsea has the savviest manager and Arsenal the most stability. I get the feeling that for Wenger it is now or never, so it will be interesting to see what happens at Arsenal at the end of the season.

Enjoy a happy and successful 2014!