The predictability of the English Premier League (EPL) has long been debated in years gone by. This is mainly because of the establishment of a big four that comprised Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Bar the odd Everton and Spurs squeak into fourth place, it has almost been written in stone that these would be the teams that finish in the top four places.
With Liverpool finishing seventh last season and Manchester City shaking the European transfer market with their outlay of millions on players; it was evident that the old order would be confined to history. Even more shaking was that Spurs deservedly finished fourth last season, putting use of the “big four” phrase on hold at least for another season.
That it has taken me down to round 6 of this season to come up with predictions for the Europa League places is evidence to how unpredictable this league is turning.
Predictions would greatly depend on the answers to the following questions: How would Spurs cope with the challenge of mid week champions league games? Who would replace Martin O’Neil at Villa and how quickly would he be able to galvanize a squad that consistently shows promise but seems to run out of steam at the business end of the season? How would Hodgson cope with the pressure at Anfield and would he be able to lift the inherited side with simply too many average players? Would Everton, considered one of the most organized and mentally strong sides in the league have a modest start and not leave it too late to get a decent run of victories? Would Mark Hughes at Fulham, like he did at Blackburn be able sustain their progress on a modest budget?
Then of course we should not ignore the steady progress that Sunderland and Birmingham have been making under Steve Bruce and Alex McLeish respectively. How much more would they progress this season?
With so many contenders for these three Europa League places, the battle may just prove to be the most entertaining aspect of this season. The quality of the sides contending should also be higher than traditional contenders, and like last season, there probably will not be much between fourth and fifth place.
Tough as it is to predict, I will go with Tottenham, Fulham and Liverpool. It is even tougher to leave Aston Villa off this list and I have no doubt they will be waiting to pounce if Hodgson fails to galvanize his disgruntled Liverpool troops quickly enough. I just think Gerard Houllier has been away from day to day football management a little too long to get it right immediately, having missed out on the start of the season.
In the interim, stay tuned for another season with twists and turns, major upsets and a couple of manager casualties. If the unpredictability of the league is in question, look no further than round 6 of games where we already have many failed predictions with the results at The City of Manchester Stadium, Emirates and Upton Park. Even more surprising is the fact that at the latter two venues, teams that are relegation candidates according to many experts performed so superbly, fans watching from proximate roof tops could easily have assumed a swap of jerseys.
