Bold Moves this weekend to shape destination of EPL Trophy

At this stage of the season, there seems little debate that the EPL title will end up at one of three possible destinations. In a weekend when all three clubs face potentially tricky ties, it is very likely that the club(s) that triumph will score a major psychological victory in the battle for the championship.

The first battle pits a typically fluid Chelsea against a rugged Stoke side that has not lost any home games this season.  While Chelsea boasts a decent record of 18 wins in 33 engagements at the Britannia stadium, they know they will have to fight until the final whistle to stand any chance of getting a result. Midfield is likely to be the key battle as Chelsea’s crafty midfielders try their wit against Stoke’s grit. Any opportunities they create will be pounced on by the predatory Demba Ba. Stoke’s direct approach is however likely to create just as much menace at the other end especially if Terry’s defense organizing skills are missing.

The second battle between Manchester United and Liverpool is considered a clash of history as English football’s two most decorated clubs go head-to-head. While United has won 44 of 87 matches that it has hosted between the two titans, they face an in-form Liverpool side that has enjoyed back to back 3:0 league victories albeit against lesser opposition. Ferguson’s defense selections will be critical to keeping the lethal Suarez quiet and of course there is the potential surprise of a resurgent Daniel Sturridge linking up with him for Liverpool. United’s approach will have to be bold to create supply lines to the prolific van Persie who if paired with the predatory Hernandez will enjoy a first double over Liverpool in four seasons.

The last title shaping battle is between the Champions, Manchester City and an Arsenal side that enjoys a 62% home-win record against City. The absence of Silva, City’s creative brain has been used to explain their last two barren outings at the Emirates, so his presence is likely to be critical to the outcome of this match up. Wenger on the other hand seems to be struggling to determine his preferred attacking setup with Walcott apparently upsetting the team’s shape during the last outing as he consistently drifted from the wing to join Giroud in the middle.

A Chelsea slip up could mark the end of their challenge if their Manchester rivals enjoy a positive return. A United double over Liverpool will keep their momentum going and potentially boost their confidence even more ahead of tough second round home fixtures against their title rivals. City on the other hand needs to win to keep the pressure on United ahead of the Champions League second round. The club’s that approach this round’s tough matches with boldness are likely to emerge with very valuable points that will offer tremendous capital in the psychological battle for supremacy in the race for gold.  

EPL Records usher in New Year!

2012 has concluded with several records firmly engraved English Premier League (EPL) history. One team that is probably more excited than others to see the back of the last year is Queens Park Rangers (QPR). An EPL record sixteen games without recording a first win of the season, now has QPR deeply rooted at the foot of the table, a massive 8 points from safety. Unless Harry Porter can find an astonishingly historic magic touch in the next half of the season, QPR are near certainties for relegation.
 
Chelsea on the other hand probably would have liked to hold onto 2012, as against all odds they finally collected the one trophy that continued to elude them despite Abramovich’s massive investment. They unfortunately followed this up with the unpleasant record of becoming the first Champions League holder to get knocked out in the group stages. Now under the guidance of former adversary, Benitez, Chelsea particularly started to show the metal of champions in the recent game against Everton. With the addition of a January signing or two, Chelsea are the one team that could upstage the Manchester giants this season.

Many expected Chelsea’s Champions League triumph to spur their wealthy blue cousins to a more successful second Champions League campaign. Manchester City however contravened to deliver the worst points tally by an English team in the history of the Champions League. Having lost out on even last season’s consolation Europa League qualification, City fans are banking on a less congested schedule than their title rivals to help aide their title defense.

 Having lost last season’s title on goal difference, it is of little surprise that Manchester United responded by adding more fire power to their attack. Plagued by a leaky defense during the first half of the current campaign, the two aspects of Manchester United conspired to deliver the highest scoring first half in EPL history (Reading 3 versus Manchester United 4). United will hope to keep their recently returned club captain, Vidic, healthy for the rest of the season to add much needed steel to their leaky defense as they bid to ramp up their goal difference. With a solid defense to complement the club’s prolific attack, United will be well placed to win a record 20^th Premier League title.

While QPR’s Harry has been complaining about the lack of fight shown by the clubs overpaid stars, Big Sam has rallied his troops to fight to remain in the EPL with every sweat they have got. In a clear display of fight and determination, West Ham received a record 8 yellow cards during their October match against QPR.

There is no doubt that 2013 will deliver even more EPL records. Will your favorite team deliver the history you crave or the history you dread? With Arsenal, Everton and Spurs locked in a fierce battle for fourth place, the final qualification spot for Champions League football, two will have to settle for the Europa League. Rapidly improving Stoke and Liverpool are likely to be involved in the battle for the last Europa League place. The Capital One League Cup also has the potential to deliver a fascinating surprise with a Swansea triumph that would see them earn a berth in next season’s Europa League.

Enjoy a Happy and prosperous 2013!!!!

Arsenal has Traded Silver for Glass?

Arsene Wenger described Islington Council’s December 2001 approval of an ultra-modern stadium at Ashburton Grove as "the biggest decision in Arsenal's history". Decorated with 13 League titles and 10 FA Cup medals, Arsenal fans accustomed to celebrating success did not anticipate that this big decision would confine them to such a long trophy drought.

Wenger who has enjoyed unwavering Gooner trust in over fifteen year’s managing the club assured fans that after sacrificing for a couple of years, the Gunners would emerge stronger than ever. With no trophies won since the 2006 move to Emirates stadium, even loyal fans have started to question this strength. Players like Vieira, Henry, Fabregas, Adebayor, Clichy, Nasri, Van Persie and Song left at their peak. In their place the likes of Squillaci, Arshavin, Chamakh, Koscielny, Santos and Gervinho have failed to consistently light up the Emirates with Arsenal’s trademark entertaining football. They were recently so out-passed, out-thought and out-fought by Swansea at the Emirates; many Arsenal fans must have felt the last aspect of their pride had been taken away.   

As fans endure by far the highest ticket prices in the league, they can now only take solace in the luxury provided by Emirates stadium. Their once hungry for success manager now feeds them to rhetoric about how finishing in the top four is as good as a trophy for Arsenal. He gives his once attentive audience assurances that the Gunners are probably the best team in Europe under Financial Fair Play regulations. Unfortunately, with wealthy club owners now able to manipulate sponsorship packages from organizations they are affiliated with, fans know that these new regulations will realistically not make their club any stronger on the pitch.

Arsenal’s major shareholders have unquestionably been the greatest beneficiaries of "the biggest decision in Arsenal's history". For many seasons, Wenger has been their most valuable resource as he delivered modest success while yielding tremendous returns on player and ticket sales, as well as appeasing fans with promising starts to league seasons.

After seven false dawns, the voices of discontent are now starting to get louder. To his credit, Wenger has responded by signing more valuable and experienced players in the last two seasons but the club has plummeted to a very lowly mid-season eighth position. Even fielding a very strong and experienced side against second division Bradford could not help steer the club towards the Capital One League Cup that Wenger previously looked upon with such disdain.

 As disgruntled fans now ask the Arsenal board to shed some of Wenger’s control over club affairs, one can’t help but wonder what it will take to save the last harmonious English Football giant from falling into discord. It would be crazy to bet against another top-four finish, as Wenger has a knack for consistently delivering at least this at the end of each season. Wenger however has a severe bout of food poisoning to Spurs’ players in May 2006 to thank for helping him keep this record unblemished.

My prediction for this season’s top four inevitably includes the two Manchester giants. With the talent at Chelsea’s disposal and the imminent return of Terry’s leadership, they should have more than sufficient firepower to stay in the top-four. Ordinarily my bet would be on a steely Everton to close out this season’s top-four but then their very influential Fellaini chose to commit a “Zidane head-butt”. However, if the suspension for the offence is three or less games, top-four may be another trophy that Arsenal kisses goodbye this season.   

UEFA’s Financial Fair Play to alter EPL Landscape?

With reports of a whopping £4.4 billion spent collectively by Premier League clubs on player transfers in the last decade, this week’s space is dedicated to evaluating transfer expenditure in relation to recent success. There has recently been plenty of talk about UEFA’s Financial Fair Play and how likely it is to be strictly implemented. Assuming UEFA implements its threat to banish from Europe’s prestigious competitions teams that spend more than they earn, one can’t help but imagine how this will impact the football landscape.

Top Six Spending Clubs on Premier League Player Transfer Expenditures in the Last Decade

Club	Players Signed	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Chel	£681m	4th	2nd	1st	1st	2nd	2nd	3rd	1st	2nd	6th
ManC	£582m	9th	16th	8th	15th	14th	9th	10th	5th	3rd	1st
Livrpl	£414m	5th	4th	5th	3rd	3rd	4th	2nd	7th	6th	8th
ManU	£352m	1st	3rd	3rd	2nd	1st	1st	1st	2nd	1st	2nd
Spurs	£350m	10th	14th	9th	5th	5th	11th	8th	4th	5th	4th
Arsnl	£214m	2nd	1st	2nd	4th	4th	3rd	4th	3rd	4th	3rd

It is of little surprise that the new found success at Chelsea and Manchester City has called for investment head and shoulders above their more historically successful rivals. With £681m and £582m respectively spent in the last decade by the new wealthy owners, the best talent has been assembled to transform these previous also runs into consistent challengers for domestic and continental honors. Consistent with the saying that “success breeds success”, these clubs have now started to establish an international fan base and increase earnings from merchandize sales, prize money and sponsorship.

If the success of both Chelsea and Manchester City is utterly attributed to financial investment, it is interesting to look at the fortunes of Liverpool and Arsenal, two more traditionally successful clubs that have taken slightly unrelated paths. Liverpool has invested £200m more than its rival but has endured more modest success, failing to qualify for the Champions League in the last three seasons! Perennial qualifiers Arsenal are marked out as one of the most fiscally responsible clubs, enjoying returns from the high capacity of their new stadium and the bounty associated with simply making the Champions League.

Liverpool fans have at least enjoyed some recent cup success, although the league cup, England’s least prestigious cup is all they have to show from the last six years. Arsenal on the other hand has to deal with a very frustrated fan base that was used to challenging for honors but now face the new reality of selling their best players every season as they take pride in simply making the EPL top four.

Tottenham, Arsenal’s North London bitter rivals has spent just £2m less than Manchester United, English Football’s most successful club of the last decade but only have the 2008 league cup to show. While a lot can be attributed to tradition and infrastructure established over years, United has spent a massive £62m less than Liverpool, their bitter rivals for English football’s most successful club in history. On top of the attractive cash prizes associated with their recent success in the EPL and Champions League, United enjoys the largest average match attendance with 75,387 per game last season, arguably the largest fan base globally to attract merchandize sales and very lucrative sponsorship deals. Nearest rival, Arsenal had 60,000 per game, while cash rich Man City and Chelsea had a meager 47,044 and 41,478 per game respectively. But even United has the small issue of debt loaded onto it by its shrewd owners to contend with.

Some pundits may rightly point to manager continuity as the reason behind United’s great success and Arsenal’s relative success considering their outlay and player turnover. It could however be argued that Chelsea the second most successful English club of the last decade has managed to attain this feat despite one of the highest manager turnover rates in the league, because it has assembled a quality squad.

There is no doubt that money is an essential ingredient for success, but it must be wisely combined with infrastructure and stability for a club to realize its full potential. While the setup of European football has until this season allowed money to bear a greater influence on success, implementation of the new UEFA regulations will tilt importance in favor of infrastructure and stability. Soccer academies, fan base and visionary managers may yet prove to be a more valuable resource to clubs than wealthy owners with very little knowledge about the game! Before we let ourselves get carried away with the dream of a fairer football world that Mr. Wenger at Arsenal has been holding onto for the last few years, it is questionable that UEFA will have the spine to address phony deals like Manchester City’s record £400m deal with Etihad Airways. Cheers Man City and Chelsea fans! Your wealthy owners will keep your houses “in order”. After all most fortunes are built by circumventing rules!

Passion, Margins or Fair play?

A quick return of the eyes of the world to the country that hosted us to a very memorable Olympics in which several records were broken, could provide a case for the argument that we just can’t have enough of the English! 

As we start a new season of a game whose origin only few can argue about, several club managers have called for players and fans to continue the Olympics spirit. That one such manager boomeranged on his plea only a few minutes into the new season with a shove in a linesman’s back is yet further evidence of how passionate this league can be.

The movement of players this close season despite UEFA’s calls for financial fair play is proof of how blinding this passion can be. With excitement rejuvenated by winning the Champion’s League, Chelsea’s Abramovich has made the biggest splash in the transfer market with over €80 million spent on new signings. Not to be left behind, Arsenal and Man United have responded in unusual style. Arsenal reaffirmed its deviation from signing raw unproven talent by signing three experienced stars at €48 million to supplement the nine signings from last season. Man United decided to supplement the €23 million spent on its typical less than 23 year old signings with a 29 year old injury prone striker at €30 million.

While last season’s title was determined by the finest of margins, the early rounds of games will have drawn concerns about the officiating margins that could determine this season’s relegation candidates. The new boys in the league are determined to boldly approach all games, but they have been quickly reminded that when in doubt, the officials always side with the establishment. Southampton and Reading will point at Tevez and Torres as beneficiaries of less bold officiating or rather the fine margins of the off-side rule. 

If the English game’s cliché that luck evens itself out over the course of the season holds up, based on early evidence, this season’s new boys will serve as a breath of fresh air and every game will keep us at the edge of our seats. Everton’s win over United served notice that this could be a season of shocks a plenty and that each of the 90 championship winning points will have to be earned.

Given that the league has attracted quality new signings from overseas while retaining its cream, this season should serve us even more quality. Will Man City’s title winning experience trump Man United’s firepower or will London’s new signings mark a shift of power back to the capital? Have your say on who will win the league, qualify for Champions League, Europa League and the relegation candidates.

Change of Guard in Europe?

It is exactly one week to the European Championships and time for the predictions to start flowing in. Given last season’s total change of guard in Europe’s strongest leagues, it will be a great feat to correctly predict the nation that will emerge as European champions.

On paper Spain and Germany are considered favorites to win it all, but so were Barcelona and Madrid for the Champions League. To the shock of book makers, a Chelsea side that seemed to be in disarray as they endured their worst Premier League season in years emerged to win the title that club owner Abramovich has been obsessed with since he took over.

While Barcelona was also faltering domestically, Madrid was on hand to end their three – year La Liga title grip. As Barca finally relinquished their title, three other title holders in Europe’s greatest leagues followed suite.

In England, big spending Manchester City finally wrestled the title from their illustrious Manchester rivals in what was the most dramatic of seasons. As City celebrated their first title in 44 seasons, Montpellier held off the challenge of wealthy PSG to win their first ever French title against all odds. While the combination of Middle Eastern billionaire owner and proven Italian manager worked for City in overcoming United’s pedigree, PSG with same combination was held off by a Montpellier side operating on one of the lowest annual budgets in top flight football.

Juventus overcame Milan to win their first Serie A title in nine years! Fans in Stadio Olimpico wildly celebrated their 30th title although two of these titles are not recognized by the Italian football federation. As the number of titles won by the Old Lady of Italian football continues to be debated, in Bavaria there was no debate about who had cost Bayern their 23rd Bundesliga title and 5th Champions League trophy. Robben’s penalty misses led to horrific boos from his club’s fans as he featured in a recent friendly for Netherlands against Bayern Munich.

Bayern’s loss was Dortmund’s gain, as they emerged as the only club in one of the recognized most competitive leagues to retain their league title. Juventus and Bayern had invested heavily in a season designed to be special for various reasons and expectations grew tremendously as both made great starts. For Juve, it was a first season at the new Stadio Olimpico stadium while Bayern was hosting the Champion’s League finals. Emotions at the end of the season couldn’t have been more different for both sets of fans.

Like Chelsea, will the European Championships be won by an England team apparently in disarray after parting ways with their coach, mounting injuries and a Rooney suspension? Could this be Italy’s year, parallel to their 2006 World Cup triumph when Juventus emerged as champions and Serie A was hit by a match-fixing scandal? France re-shaping their image after a disgraceful world cup has started to show tremendous character in beating favorites Germany and overcoming a two goal deficit to beat Iceland. But this could be the year when Europe’s nearly men and last world cup’s loosing finalists arrive; after all, in van Persie and Huntelaar they boast two of last season’s most prolific European strikers bar Ronaldo. Have your say on who will emerge 2012 European champions.

From Scrap to Steel!

Last week the debate about whether the Premier League is superior to La Liga was possibly finally settled. Probably more in anticipation of the events to follow the next day, Premier League chairman Dave Richards had raised eyebrows with accusations that FIFA and UEFA stole football from its English inventor.

While the elimination of one English team after another from the Champions League and Europa League highlighted the demise of the English Premier League, a flicker of hope was borne from the most unlikely source. As they descended the league table, they were considered the collapsing giant of English football especially when they moved from the most glamorous managers in world football to a lowly West Bromwich reject. Chelsea fans may have held onto a few memorable Roberto Di Matteo performances and goals from the late nineties, but on Wednesday night, he was firmly engraved into Chelsea’s history for leading them to arguably their greatest ever performance. Notably, the historic performance was inspired by the “old guard” that former manager AVB was hired at a very high cost to scrap.

As Drogba, Terry and Lampard were helping rejuvenate the spent blue force of London, their diminishing red counterparts were being revived by two players that gooners were hoping got dumped from their dressing room. Since that remarkable turnaround against their soaring North London rivals, Rosicky and Walcott have proved an irreplaceable component of an Arsenal juggernaut that was overly reliant on Robin van Persie earlier in the season.

Northwest of London, the scrap that was being refined to steel is helping shape a very nail biting finish in the battle for the title between the Manchester rivals. Like the Arsenal pair, Jonny Evans and David De Gea considered baggage by many United fans are now the glue that has helped plug United’s leaky defense. The former even capped his recent assured displays with his first goal in United colors to send the Red Devils on their way to cutting back the massive goal difference advantage that their cross-town rivals enjoyed.

In stacking up the goals, Manchester City have been so impressive, two-thirds of managers in the EPL tipped them to win the league. That they have recently seemed to be faltering, City fans may have to count on a Tevez refinement to rejuvenate their title surge.

At the other end of the table, the Manchester clubs’ Lancashire county rivals seem to be enjoying a revival of their own. Blackburn fans that have been clamoring for manager, Steve Keane’s head since the beginning of the season are now finally cheering rather than revolting at Ewood Park. With Blackburn rising above the relegation places against most predictions, what was considered “Keane’s crazy optimism” earlier in the season is now considered very likely.

From top to bottom of the league, players and managers considered scrap earlier in the season are enjoying such a revival they are poised to determine this season’s champions, champion’s league qualifiers and survivors of the drop. Other’s worth mentioning are Newcastle’s owner booed for replacing Andy Carroll with bargains that have seen the club challenge for Europe and Alex McLeish greeted by Villa fans’ echoes of “You don’t know what you are doing” for replacing Charles Nzogbia in the game against Fulham with unknown, Andreas Weimann, the eventual match winner. Have your say on which clubs are likely to reap the greatest benefit from turning their scrap into steel.