The predictability of the English Premier League (EPL) has long been debated in years gone by. This is mainly because of the establishment of a big four that comprised Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Bar the odd Everton and Spurs squeak into fourth place, it has almost been written in stone that these would be the teams that finish in the top four places.
With Liverpool finishing seventh last season and Manchester City shaking the European transfer market with their outlay of millions on players; it was evident that the old order would be confined to history. Even more shaking was that Spurs deservedly finished fourth last season, putting use of the “big four” phrase on hold at least for another season.
That it has taken me down to round 6 of this season to come up with predictions for the Europa League places is evidence to how unpredictable this league is turning.
Predictions would greatly depend on the answers to the following questions: How would Spurs cope with the challenge of mid week champions league games? Who would replace Martin O’Neil at Villa and how quickly would he be able to galvanize a squad that consistently shows promise but seems to run out of steam at the business end of the season? How would Hodgson cope with the pressure at Anfield and would he be able to lift the inherited side with simply too many average players? Would Everton, considered one of the most organized and mentally strong sides in the league have a modest start and not leave it too late to get a decent run of victories? Would Mark Hughes at Fulham, like he did at Blackburn be able sustain their progress on a modest budget?
Then of course we should not ignore the steady progress that Sunderland and Birmingham have been making under Steve Bruce and Alex McLeish respectively. How much more would they progress this season?
With so many contenders for these three Europa League places, the battle may just prove to be the most entertaining aspect of this season. The quality of the sides contending should also be higher than traditional contenders, and like last season, there probably will not be much between fourth and fifth place.
Tough as it is to predict, I will go with Tottenham, Fulham and Liverpool. It is even tougher to leave Aston Villa off this list and I have no doubt they will be waiting to pounce if Hodgson fails to galvanize his disgruntled Liverpool troops quickly enough. I just think Gerard Houllier has been away from day to day football management a little too long to get it right immediately, having missed out on the start of the season.
In the interim, stay tuned for another season with twists and turns, major upsets and a couple of manager casualties. If the unpredictability of the league is in question, look no further than round 6 of games where we already have many failed predictions with the results at The City of Manchester Stadium, Emirates and Upton Park. Even more surprising is the fact that at the latter two venues, teams that are relegation candidates according to many experts performed so superbly, fans watching from proximate roof tops could easily have assumed a swap of jerseys.
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Your Pick for Champions League Places
As we start our predictions for potential champions and the big monetary prize that comes at the end of the 2010 – 2011 season, it is prudent to look into the events of last season and the transfer window.
For the last six seasons, Chelsea has undoubtedly had the strongest squad in the league and as defending champions they start as the team to beat. This time though, they too are probably looking at Manchester City enviously as they realize they do not boast the luxury of strongest squad in the league any more.
The transfer window business has seen Chelsea shed off some age in the shape of Ballack, Carvalho, Belleti and Deco. Although Joe Cole is only 29 years, he has not had a chance to be a major influence over the last couple of years and despite his undoubted quality, Chelsea will not be weaker because of his departure. The additions of Benayoun and Ramires will not cause major title rivals to shake in their boots though. The fit again Essein is the major reason why Chelsea may be stronger this season than the last, although you have to feel that the loss of Carvalho will weaken them defensively and they may struggle without a quality defensive replacement.
Manchester United having been piped by just a point last season will surely fancy their chances. A major concern would be the fact that they were overly reliant on Rooney last season and you cannot guarantee that he will enjoy this season nearly as much.
Chicarito is undoubtedly the exciting bit of business United have done this summer and he may be the breath of fresh air needed to inspire the rest of the team to chip in with goals. Getting the best out of Berbatov who looked very lively playing alongside Chicarito may actually be the master piece in the puzzle to make the United machine tick again.
Although you would not bet on a recurrence of the defensive injuries that wiped out two entire ManU back fours last season, their primary defensive unit looks very injury prone. Van ser Sar is an awkward fall away from injury and Ferdinand together with Brown will not be expected to get 50 games between them.
New defensive signing Smalling has done very little to inspire confidence while there will also be worries about how influential old guards Giggs and Scholes continue to be. The return of a fit Macheda will increase competition on the striking positions so we should see a much better spread of goals through the team. The other new signing, previously unknown Bebe who was playing in the Portuguese third division only five weeks ago and was until recently living in a homeless shelter will also be a very interesting story to follow.
Arsenal has seen the departures of their old guard in Silvestre, Gallas and Campbel, but last season they were all particularly of minimal influence. The loss of van Persie to injury for much of last season was clearly a major blow to Arsenal and in signing Chamakh they should be able to cope with van Persie’s expected absence at least for a few games and will also lend some size to their attack.
Interestingly, defense was the major area that Arsenal struggled with last season and Wenger must have such confidence in new signing Koscielny, he expects him to compensate for the loss of 3 center halves. How Fabregas copes after a summer of much speculation may also be an interesting factor to watch for.
Manchester City may have missed out on a top four place last season but they have made a great statement of intent with yet further extravagance in the transfer market. As the squads get trimmed to just 25 players, City will without a doubt have the highest quality squad. With at least two world class players for each position, it is hard to point out an area of weakness in their squad.
The key question is that with so many new signings, will they gel quickly enough to mount a realistic challenge? Mancini like Ancelotti will also now have the bonus of having had more time to instill his style on the team, although after hearing outbursts from Adebayor and Given, Mancini has a real challenge of managing so many egos.
Liverpool and Tottenham will feel very hard done to be excluded from this list of predictions. I expect a real surge from Liverpool this season given their new witty manager Hodgson but they still seem to be a little light in their squad. I believe they will get real close to the top four but they will find Arsenal’s experience too hard to crack and City’s depth hard to overcome. Chelsea and United will also prove too seasoned as they bid to either retain or return the trophy. Tottenham will simply be undone by the demands of European football, although I expect both to easily get back into Europe.
For the last six seasons, Chelsea has undoubtedly had the strongest squad in the league and as defending champions they start as the team to beat. This time though, they too are probably looking at Manchester City enviously as they realize they do not boast the luxury of strongest squad in the league any more.
The transfer window business has seen Chelsea shed off some age in the shape of Ballack, Carvalho, Belleti and Deco. Although Joe Cole is only 29 years, he has not had a chance to be a major influence over the last couple of years and despite his undoubted quality, Chelsea will not be weaker because of his departure. The additions of Benayoun and Ramires will not cause major title rivals to shake in their boots though. The fit again Essein is the major reason why Chelsea may be stronger this season than the last, although you have to feel that the loss of Carvalho will weaken them defensively and they may struggle without a quality defensive replacement.
Manchester United having been piped by just a point last season will surely fancy their chances. A major concern would be the fact that they were overly reliant on Rooney last season and you cannot guarantee that he will enjoy this season nearly as much.
Chicarito is undoubtedly the exciting bit of business United have done this summer and he may be the breath of fresh air needed to inspire the rest of the team to chip in with goals. Getting the best out of Berbatov who looked very lively playing alongside Chicarito may actually be the master piece in the puzzle to make the United machine tick again.
Although you would not bet on a recurrence of the defensive injuries that wiped out two entire ManU back fours last season, their primary defensive unit looks very injury prone. Van ser Sar is an awkward fall away from injury and Ferdinand together with Brown will not be expected to get 50 games between them.
New defensive signing Smalling has done very little to inspire confidence while there will also be worries about how influential old guards Giggs and Scholes continue to be. The return of a fit Macheda will increase competition on the striking positions so we should see a much better spread of goals through the team. The other new signing, previously unknown Bebe who was playing in the Portuguese third division only five weeks ago and was until recently living in a homeless shelter will also be a very interesting story to follow.
Arsenal has seen the departures of their old guard in Silvestre, Gallas and Campbel, but last season they were all particularly of minimal influence. The loss of van Persie to injury for much of last season was clearly a major blow to Arsenal and in signing Chamakh they should be able to cope with van Persie’s expected absence at least for a few games and will also lend some size to their attack.
Interestingly, defense was the major area that Arsenal struggled with last season and Wenger must have such confidence in new signing Koscielny, he expects him to compensate for the loss of 3 center halves. How Fabregas copes after a summer of much speculation may also be an interesting factor to watch for.
Manchester City may have missed out on a top four place last season but they have made a great statement of intent with yet further extravagance in the transfer market. As the squads get trimmed to just 25 players, City will without a doubt have the highest quality squad. With at least two world class players for each position, it is hard to point out an area of weakness in their squad.
The key question is that with so many new signings, will they gel quickly enough to mount a realistic challenge? Mancini like Ancelotti will also now have the bonus of having had more time to instill his style on the team, although after hearing outbursts from Adebayor and Given, Mancini has a real challenge of managing so many egos.
Liverpool and Tottenham will feel very hard done to be excluded from this list of predictions. I expect a real surge from Liverpool this season given their new witty manager Hodgson but they still seem to be a little light in their squad. I believe they will get real close to the top four but they will find Arsenal’s experience too hard to crack and City’s depth hard to overcome. Chelsea and United will also prove too seasoned as they bid to either retain or return the trophy. Tottenham will simply be undone by the demands of European football, although I expect both to easily get back into Europe.
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