EPL Predictions: Judgment Time!

EPL Predictions: Judgment Time!: When Louis van Gaal took charge of Manchester United, he attempted to curb fans’ high expectations for instant success with a warning that ...

Judgment Time!

When Louis van Gaal took charge of Manchester United, he attempted to curb fans’ high expectations for instant success with a warning that his methods usually bear fruit after three months.  After a very underwhelming start to his United career and with pundits holding the timeline against his head, Louis declared regret for making the statement. Whether the retraction buys Louis some respite or not, for all club managers, the one-third point of the season is when many club owners take stock and pass judgment on if adjustments need to be made to strengthen the team’s chances of winning the title, make the Champions League, qualify for Europe, attain mid-table safety or simply avoid relegation.

Despite starting the season in arguably the most vulnerable position, Sam Allardyce has probably done the most to strengthen his position by steering West Ham into European qualifying places by playing an expansive style of football that has even the most critical fans raving. On the other side was Brendan Rogers who arguably started the season in the strongest position as Manager-of-the-year, but with a series of disjointed performances has a questionable future at Liverpool.

If Rogers is seeking encouragement for his predicament, he needs to look no further than Alan Pardew at Newcastle. Despite massive protests with fans begging for his head as Newcastle started the season like a rapidly sinking titanic; five straight wins soon had Newcastle on the brink of Champions League places. Perhaps Alan’s experience is testament to all clubs that in such a tight league, the line between success and failure is so thin, both criticism and praise should be taken with a grain of salt.

Southampton and Chelsea are two teams that have rightly been heaped with praise for the start they have made to the season. Southampton have especially impressed beyond the imagination of even the most optimistic fans as a newly assembled team has so seamlessly adapted to the league, they look a sure bet for European qualification. Chelsea on the other hand have been so breath taking, they have already been labeled “Champions elect.” While Manchester City are now displaying signs of a resolute title defense, Jose Mourinho is portraying the kind of determination that Sir Alex Ferguson had in his last season in charge, when he won the title at a canter for Manchester United.

Manchester United has probably rightly been criticized for a slow start that included a shambolic collapse against Leicester City.  While mitigating factors like forty two injuries have helped keep United fans on Van Gaal’s side, the less highlighted poor performances by major rivals, has seen United creep into the targeted top four places almost unnoticed. Arsene Wenger managing one of the major challengers seems to be steadily losing fans’ support, as they expected last season’s FA Cup success to help Arsenal to kick on and become a major title challenger. As Tottenham, Everton and Liverpool all seem to be finally finding their rhythm after less than impressive starts to the season, it feels like we have a fascinating battle on our hands.

Speaking of hands, unfortunately the fate of many teams will be unjustly determined by referees. The introduction of goal line technology may have helped eliminate the risk of “ghost goals” but diving has already led to the award of unfair penalties and red cards. With the threat of officiating errors likely to determine the fate of certain teams, club owners may have to rely on Napoleon’s wisdom to determine whether to keep their managers “I know he's a good general, but is he lucky?” 

The Next Chapter

With so many club owners and managers referring to their clubs’ ambitions as a project, this season appears to be a new chapter for most. More than just the record expenditure on new signings, this season has started with radical change for a number of clubs.

Southampton endured the most challenging of summers as they involuntarily lost a plethora of their stars and the manager who impressively led their charge to the brink of European football. Contrary to pre-season predictions that they would be battling relegation this season, the Saints have emphatically forced pundits to swallow their evaluations by ridding to the lofty position of second in the Premier League table. Will new manager Ronald Koeman sustain the momentum for the entire season and lead Southampton to the next phase of their project by qualifying for European football?

When they closed the transfer window with the signing of two truly world class gems, Manchester United thought they had forced pundits to swallow their pre-season doom predictions. In truth, after very impressive pre-season games and with a very remarkable World Cup behind the new manager, it looked like the pundits had been quickly converted into believers. Despite some jaw dropping attacking play, one win in the first five games of the season has not helped to keep the critics away and they are sounding louder than ever. Will new manager Louis van Gaal continue his legacy of turning very slow starts into successful first seasons? Champions League qualification is mandated after the lavish outlay on rebuilding the post-Ferguson United.

With a look of determination akin to Sir Alex Ferguson’s in his final season at United, Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho is expected to complete the transformation his “little horse” from last season into a champion. Having enjoyed one of the most prudent transfer windows, Chelsea have overwhelmed all that has crossed their path on their way to establishing an early strong lead in the Premier League table. While titles have been synonymous with Mourinho, he has to turn a page from his pragmatic profile by delivering this season’s title with stylish play.

Considered the protagonist of pragmatic play, Big Sam Allardyce is required to return West Ham United’s traditionally stylish play with a minimum of top half of the table finish. Despite leading the Hammers back to the top tier of English football and consolidating their position in the league, the fans have never warmed up to Big Sam. It will be some turn around if he can not only hold onto his position for the entirety of this season but finally get the fans to sing his name in the terraces.

If Jose and Sam need to look anywhere for a model of stylish play, they need to look no further than another of their London rivals. Having transformed Arsenal from the most pragmatic side in English football, Arsene Wenger has consistently delivered football in its most aesthetic form over the last eighteen years. After a couple of big money signings in recent seasons, and a first trophy to end a nine year drought, Arsenal fans will accept a little pragmatism if it will finally deliver a first league title in almost 10 years.

Merseyside has the other two managers who are synonymous with delivering aesthetic football. Having appeared to deliver his with a lot more end product than Arsenal, Brendan Rogers finally had Liverpool fans dreaming of a return to the glory days they last enjoyed in 1992. Having signed almost ten players to compensate for the departure of maverick Louis Suarez and the return of Champions League football, the next step in Liverpool’s progress is the League title. After a very slow start that has seen them lose three of their first five games this season, Liverpool are steadily revising their goals back to another season of Champions League qualification and a major trophy. Achieving this objective may have to be at the expense of Everton, their bitter Merseyside rivals who will be hoping to go one better than last season and make it into the coveted top four.

Will the clubs that successfully progress to their next chapter be those that have had a great start to the season or will the slower starters build a head of steam to overhaul the early season pace setters? This weekend’s North London and Merseyside derbies may be the start of the season long battle to settle this debate.

Defying the Critics

Numerous champions have ironically attributed the inspiration for their success to criticism; even that intended to bring them down. At the dawn of this new Premier League season, many clubs will be anxiously rubbing their hands at the opportunity to defy critics.

Southampton is arguably the team that has suffered the most ridicule this summer as they have overseen an exodus of six star players and the manager credited with their remarkable season. While most pundits predict that their new look squad led by a novice manager to the Premier League will descend from the echelons of challenging for European football to a relegation dog fight, Ronald Koeman will be determined to prove that he has the managerial wit to be a Premier League hit. Southampton’s cause may be helped by Crystal Palace’s crazy decision to part ways with the manager who impressively transformed their season from certainties for relegation to the brink of a top half of the table finish. The wisdom of West Brom’s decision to offer Alan Irvine his first managerial assignment will also be tested especially after their ostracized sacking of the highly regarded Steve Clarke.

While West Brom’s Alan has a blank slate to fill, Newcastle’s Alan has a dark slate to clean. On top of embarrassing the club and his managerial colleagues with an unprovoked head-butt of an opposition player, Alan Pardew oversaw a dreadful run in the second half of last season that included six straight defeats. After enduring very loud boos from his own fans and most pundits begging for his head, Alan will want to make the most of the miracle that he is still in a job by turning around the fans’ opinion of him.

If any manager can think that Pardew is in an enviable position, it is Sam Allardyce who can never do enough to win the support of West Ham’s owners and fans. He may have got the club promoted and helped establish them in the Premier League with two decent end-of-season table standings, but his efficient playing style is being held against him. Although none of his previous teams have been renowned for playing with flair, the club owners have bought the players they feel should enable him to do more than just win, as they need him to do it with style. Most pundits have him together with Aston Villa’s Paul Lambert as odds on favorites for the sack. Big Sam will be extra motivated to prove that with the right resources, he has the coaching ability deliver the silky football to turn around his club’s apparently insatiable fans.

Probably the most inspired outfit contending at the top end of the table will be Manchester United. After enjoying peerless dominance for twenty odd years, United’s players suffered unfathomable ridicule in a limp season they will be eager to forget. Given that the blue moneybags in Manchester and London have added so much quality to their already lavish squads, qualifying for the Champions League may be as far as inspiration can get this United squad. Standing in United’s way will be a finally munificent Arsene Wenger and Brendan Rogers who has already made ten new signings. Wenger will be inspired to prove that Arsenal’s nearly decade long trophy drought was merely enforced by the club’s long term investment in a stadium rather than a sign that he has been surpassed by modern day coaching.  Rogers on the other hand will be motivated to prove that his self-belief is not misplaced and that he is leading a genuine Liverpool renaissance that will not be halted by the departure of a single troubled player.

The highlighted clubs, their players and managers may face different challenges to defy their critics but they all approach the new season with renewed optimism and defiance that they believe will help them upset the odds. In the dog-eat-dog World that the Premier League is, it has to be at the expense of another that one can realize their objective. Who will have the last laugh?

A Season of Compromise

When arguably the most successful manager in the history of team sports makes a decision to step down after managing your team for over a generation, you expect to make a few compromises as his replacement adjusts to fit the enormous boots.

As Mr. Moyes stumbled through the first couple of months at Old Trafford, I had been conditioned to trust the old master’s judgment. After all, critics had questioned Sir Alex Ferguson’s judgment with Ronaldo when he seemed to be a one trick pony and De Gea when he seemed to consistently flap at crosses into the box, but both have since risen to modestly speaking, “world class status”.

I was unflustered by the relentless negative headlines about the crumbling records at Old Trafford because I trusted that a meticulous Mr. Moyes would continue to learn from the flaws of the first period of the season to deliver a sudden charge into the top 4. I was confident that he would then build on this for a sustained challenge next season with may be a cup win and then finally deliver the title in the season that would follow.

While many chose to focus on the demise of what was a team sports brand benchmark, I celebrated the little progress we seemed to be making. The best away record in the league, clean sheets, more coordinated attacking play and a disciplined performance against the European champions. I celebrated the class displayed by United fans sticking with their team when all other fans would have been baying for the manager’s head.

As the season draws to a close, it is unfortunate that someone leaked to the press about Mr. Moyes’ impending sack before he was officially notified, diminishing the class that has made this great club the bench mark of team sports brands. With the possibility of a 4^th place finish all but extinguished by the time of his sacking, I was caught at a cross roads about how Europa league football would potentially impact our rebuilding next season. While a part of me had been reduced to cheering for Europa qualification, I am not mourning our shortfall because I see the positive of avoiding the stress it traditionally brings on league form.

Embarrassing as it is, this season has reduced me to cheering the shortfalls of some of our major rivals. For all the disdain I have about Mourinho’s style, I continue to hold hope that he will win the title against the odds, because I consider Chelsea the lesser evil of the three title challengers. More realistically though, as I have come to accept that the title will be won by one of the two teams I would most hate to succeed, I have painfully found myself cheering for our noisy neighbors.

While the press and Liverpool try to convince themselves that they are the neutrals’ pick for the title, I have come to hideously accept that I am not one of the neutrals. As some consolation to me, I have learned that fans of many other teams are quietly hoping that Liverpool fall short for different reasons.

Of course there is Everton because of their Mersey side rivalry; Chelsea and Arsenal would be better placed to explain their shortfalls by Man City’s unfair financial outlay on player purchases; and Tottenham’s own lack of progress on the pitch will be less exposed if Liverpool, a recent traditional Europa league qualifying peer did not suddenly surge to the title. In my case, it is probably a matter of pride and bragging rights that I would like to celebrate superior league success history with 20 titles versus 18 titles for Liverpool.

The compromise I have learned to make this season has fortunately given me a few of my own team’s positives to celebrate as the season draws to an end. Stacked in tradition, not only do we have several legends serving as club ambassadors, it gives me so much pride to see the famed “Class of 92” on the bench helping groom the next generation of super stars. Despite some of our more promising emerging stars playing out on loan, it is also very pleasing to see our U-21 team make it to the finals with a real possibility of bringing in some silver ware. Yes, such is the level of my compromise that for the first time ever, I would enthusiastically celebrate winning the U-21 trophy!

Keeping the Smile on the Red Half of Manchester

This season, Manchester United fans have had to endure more ridicule and heart break than they could ever have imagined. It has been such a painful adjustment to life after Ferguson, Moyes’ proclamation that he has not given the fans nearly enough to cheer is such an understatement. Time and again, United fans have been crashed as Old Trafford has been turned into a theater where visiting “also runs” have celebrated dream success and dropped heads of Moyes’ charges have become a familiar sight.

As in the past couple of decades, United has continued to grab headlines, but this season they have all been negative and predictions have been of nothing but gloom. As every dark cloud has a silver lining, here are five reasons for Manchester United fans keep smiling and enjoy the rest of the season:

1.       Manchester United without dispute boasts the best fans in the game!

Earlier in the season when Wayne Rooney was probably considering agitating for a move, hearing cheers when he may have expected to be booed by United fans probably settled him to deliver one of his most influential seasons.

Despite the disappointing run start to Moyes’ era, United fans continue to travel in large numbers to away grounds and many times out sing their host fans. Nowhere else will fans continue to sing the manager’s name and encourage their troops after a record breaking run of disappointing results.

2.       Consider it a great compliment that so many rivals are celebrating United’s re-adjusting pain.

If you were on the other side of a team that had won nearly forty major trophies in twenty-three years, you probably would celebrate as wildly as the opposition are.

That the falling records stood as long as they did is a measure of how great the club is. Keep track of how long the record stood and remember every record is bound to come to an end at some point any way.

3.       Constant press criticism goes to show that United is the standard of English football.

Last season when Manchester United comfortably won the league with a double digit point’s lead, they were the worst United team of Ferguson’s era. Between 2007 and 2009 when United won three successive league titles and made it to consecutive Champions League finals, they were not as good as the 1999 treble winners.

The press will always be critical of Manchester United so this season’s criticism should not be unsettling to fans – it only goes to show that United are the true standard of English football.

4.       Celebrate even the small successes.

In a season where United players have connived to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory, success should not be taken for granted. Celebrate every victory like a cup final, progression to Champions League knockout stages like a semi-final appearance, and if United can snatch the fourth and final Champions League place, celebrate like Wenger has done over the last few seasons.

For a team that carries the average talent of Cleverly and Buttner, celebrate the signing of world class talent (Mata) and the unearthing of exciting young talent (Januzaj) like the re-birth of Cantona and Best.

5.       No team will be close enough to threaten United’s record league titles at season end.

As long as Liverpool are not surprise winners of this season’s title, none of the title contenders will get close enough to threaten Manchester United’s record twenty league titles.

Based on current league standings, Arsenal only has thirteen, Manchester City three and Chelsea has four. Liverpool success would leave them only one short of United’s record haul of league titles.

Although United fans had become accustomed to celebrating much more, these are just a few reasons for fans to hold their heads up, wear their jerseys, keep their smile and enjoy the rest of the season.

Conclusions about this Season’s Title Contenders

With changes in management and playing personnel at England’s largest clubs, this was expected to be the most open title race. Mourinho has often been quoted saying that any of six teams could win this season’s title. Aside from gate crushing Everton, those six teams now occupy the top positions in the league.

At exactly the mid-way point of this season’s race, of the six tipped teams, you could say that Manchester United and Tottenham have so far had disappointing seasons while Arsenal and Liverpool have been amazing. To put into perspective just how fickle applauds during the course of a season can be, Liverpool this season’s Christmas Champions now seat in lowly fifth place just two points above the disappointing duo.

Arsenal on the other hand has returned to the summit! Against Newcastle, Wenger showed that Arsenal is now willing to compromise their silky DNA for a Stoke-like approach if it will allow them to cling onto three valuable points. Such a display of hunger for the title justifies tipping Arsenal as genuine title contenders. On the flip side, I must warn Arsenal fans that contrary to reports that he is on the verge of signing a contract extension, such drive for success at all costs may point to a planned Wenger exit with a bang. He has the look that I saw in Feguson’s eyes last season, especially when United were playing against Real Madrid in the Champions League.

Despite Arsenal’s presence at the top of the league, most pundits are tipping Manchester City as favorites for this season’s title. Inconsistent away from home during the first half of the season, City now seem to be settling into their stride and are lurking just a point behind the summit. The ease with which City blew away Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium will give them a lot of confidence entering into the second half of the season. It is now an increasingly popular saying especially adopted by Arsenal fans that this league will be won by consistently beating teams in the lower half of the table rather than beating the big six. While partially true that consistency against the course of the entire race will determine the winner of this marathon, loosing against a major rival is such a big blow, “six-pointer” is no exaggeration.

Although not many pundits agree with me at this point of the season, I rate Chelsea as City’s major rivals for the title. While Arsenal and Liverpool have already been consistently playing out of their skins, Chelsea have remained “there abouts” without quite impressing, of course until last weekend against Liverpool. Mourinho has used the first half of this season to down play his sides chances and keep all the pressure off what he considers to be a very inexperienced group of players. A master of mind games, he will try to get under the skin of those he considers to be major threats for the title and this could just unsettle the opposition. You would think that Pelligrini is experienced and diplomatic enough not to be sucked in but he has never quite faced the brunt of Mourinho’s tactics. Chelsea’s misfiring strikers are also likely to pick up in the second half of the season as Mourinho’s public criticism inspires them to finally start scoring.

While Rodgers has tremendously improved this Liverpool’s performances from last season, I think he and his squad are just too inexperienced to win the title this season. Facing the challenge of a tenacious Everton as well as resurgent Manchester United and Tottenham, holding on for a top four finish will be as good as Liverpool are genuinely in contention for. However, if Rodgers keeps improving Liverpool at this pace, they are likely to be genuine contenders for next season’s title.

In conclusion, this season’s title is Man City’s to loose, Chelsea’s to win and Arsenal’s to grab. City boasts the most complete squad; Chelsea has the savviest manager and Arsenal the most stability. I get the feeling that for Wenger it is now or never, so it will be interesting to see what happens at Arsenal at the end of the season.

Enjoy a happy and successful 2014!

United They Stand!

It is a cliché that when you find an ally in what was a major rival, you are no longer considered a major threat. That is the place Wenger found himself in over the last couple of seasons as some Arsenal fans advocated for his sacking after an unbearable trophy drought, and Sir Alex vocally stood in his defense. After a flying start to the new season that has taken Arsenal five points ahead of nearest rivals in the league, Wenger is returning the favor by defending Sir Alex’s successor as United finds itself trailing in unfamiliar mid-table territory.

Moments away from what is sure to be a season defining game, the dynamics of this encounter are more different than they have been in nearly a decade. Given their lofty league position and that they have just returned from impressively conquering last season’s Champions League finalists on their own turf, Arsenal are considered overwhelming favorites for this tie. Not even United’s relative improvement in form with a run of eight games unbeaten will reduce the odds that are heavily in Arsenal’s favor!

Pound for pound, you could say there is very little to choose between the quality of players on both sides. Granted Arsenal boasts a vastly superior midfield but United’s attack is dominant. United’s defense will however only measure up if new manager David Moyes makes the right selections with regular right back Rafael Da Silva’s availability in question.

If both sides hold firm to make it an even contest, this is a game that is likely to be won on United’s right flank. Moyes must stay away from the easy option of selecting center halves Chris Smalling or Phil Jones as replacement right backs. Their performances have bordered on comical when faced with a tricky winger! A masterstroke for United would be the selection of regular winger, Antonio Valencia at right back and roll the dice with the wild card selection of Wilfred Zaha. Though untested at this level, Zaha’s potential is enormous and the element of surprise could put United on the front foot. Nani if he understands that he is playing for his future after the boos he had to endure from his own fans during the last outing may also turnout to be a smart move if it prompts him to improve his decision making. After all, either winger will be up against the offensively brilliant but sometimes defensively naïve Kieran Gibbs.

Given their run of form since the turn of the year, Arsenal will have every reason to head into this tie with more confidence than their rivals who have recently not enjoyed the most positive of results on home turf. United’s form in the Moyes era has been patchy at best, only showing glimpses of class but never a collective performance of verve to last an entire match. You can almost touch the tension at Old Trafford as many fans cheer in hope rather than expectation that this evidently hard working, humble and honest man can win a trophy and secure the job of his dreams.

What may just keep United standing at the end of this much anticipated encounter is the support from neutrals and some sworn enemies that they will enjoy for the first time in decades. While most neutrals will prefer an Arsenal success at the end of the season, they will hope a win by Manchester United, the serial champions, will make the league more watchable as suddenly several other clubs come into play for this season’s title. Even Manuel Pellegrini from the noisy neighbors could not hide his support for United in this encounter during his pre-match press conference at Sunderland.

Can a United win help them build momentum that will come back to haunt some of their bitter rivals for their support?

The Shifting Balance of Power in the English Premier League

The curtains came down on last season with speculation about who would fill the power vacuum left by the incredible Sir Alex Ferguson rife. Sensing the opportunity to launch their clubs to the pinnacle of the English game, the two runner ups to Ferguson’s Manchester United decided to replace their managers with more formidable names.

Manchester City signed a couple of seasoned professionals to strengthen their already enviable squad and Chelsea returned the trophy laden self-proclaimed “Special one” to gel their embarrassing wealth of attacking talent. Predictions intensified that Mourinho would be the true challenger to Arsene Wenger as the league’s new Godfather. In order to work their way to this season’s title, they both would have to overcome Man City, led by Pelligrini, nicknamed the engineer because of his ability to make so much of his teams with very little resources.

As Arsenal’s North London rivals splashed plenty of resources on reinforcing a team that very narrowly missed out on fourth place last season, Wenger continued to tighten his purse strings. As speculation intensified that last season’s fourth placed manager may follow his conquerors out of the door, Wenger was thrown a life line by Madrid’s Bale signing from Tottenham.

For now at least, it looks like Wenger’s signing of Mesut Ozil, European football’s assist master was a master stroke. The signing has also caused previously considered average players like Aaron Ramsey and Olivier Giroud to lift their performances to a much higher level, and a brilliant Arsenal to the top of the league. Chelsea who started the season like a work in progress are however lurking just two points behind and many pundits are starting to predict that Mourinho’s affinity for trophies may just tilt the balance of power in the blue corner’s favor.

Evidence of Fernando Torres’ recent rejuvenation may give predictions of a Mourinho success some weight, but it is the player’s former club’s rejuvenation that seems to be catching more attention. The Sturridge – Suarez partnership is generally acknowledged to be the best striking partnership in the league with many at Anfield hoping they could tilt the balance of power back to Merseyside after a long absence. This weekend’s top of the table clash against Arsenal may be a key pointer to which of these two pretenders in the eyes of some skeptics is in the race for the long-haul. With Everton ridding high just two points behind second place, Liverpool will be determined to win the clash for Merseyside dominance if not for their own title aspirations. After all Liverpool’s ownership has been quietly playing down their title aspirations to fourth place much like Wenger did last season.

Ironic that despite being defending champions, there are not many betting on the title aspirations of the team that knocked Liverpool off their perch. Even Yaya Toure from their noisy neighbors wrote off Manchester United’s title chances saying “they are really struggling under Moyes”, and tipped Liverpool to be City’s major threat. Given that City are just two points ahead of their struggling Manchester neighbors, it may be argued that the Manchester dominance of the last three seasons is shifting away. Whether it is shifting to Mersey side or London may be up for debate over the next twenty nine rounds. If the spirit of Ferguson that continues lurk over Manchester with his recent autobiography translates to the players’ performances on the pitch, Manchester may not relinquish the power that easily. However, given the very uncertain start that “The chosen one” has made to life at Old Trafford, even the most loyal fans will consider any sort of title challenge a major success.

Moyes Turning around United’s Disastrous Transfer Window

Manchester United’s disastrous transfer window has dominated headlines for the last few weeks with many fearing that the huge boots left by legendary manager Sir Alex Ferguson and CEO David Gill will prove impossible to fill by their successors.

Most held new CEO Ed Woodward’s inexperience as responsible for the undignified transfer window that threatened to destroy one of the most carefully crafted sports team brands on the globe. However, David Moyes the new manager was at least partly culpable for the messy transfer of midfielder Maroune Fellaini from Everton the club he previously managed. United's need for Fellaini was so obvious, it was shocking that Moyes would watch as Fellaini’s exit clause expired, costing the club £4 million extra as they scrambled to complete what should have been a straight forward signing.

None the less, there is now a growing feeling that Moyes has started to turn things around in a way that could endear him to the United faithful.

United fans have viewed events at Old Trafford suspiciously since the unpopular takeover of the club by the Glazer family, but Moyes will have struck a chord with many by demonstrating great accountability. In his first pre-match press conference since the infamous transfer window, Moyes took the opportunity to explain why the signing of Fellaini was delayed and why he had so far been unable to field some fan favorites (reference Shinji Kagawa).

Although Moyes has consistently expressed humility and honor at the opportunity to succeed arguably the greatest manager in history, that he is steadily proving to be his own man will earn him the respect he needs to succeed in this huge institution. It was apparent that in making his dispute with Wayne Rooney public during his final act, Ferguson was determined to kick out another non-compliant star player. As shown in all the games in which he has featured so far this season, keeping hold of a motivated Rooney is a much greater coup than signing any of the marquee midfielders that Moyes had targeted. The fans appreciate Rooney for his hard work and skill, and it is great credit to Moyes United retained his services despite Chelsea’s aggressive advances during the transfer window.

While van Persie was considered last season’s statement signing, the rapturous reception Fellaini received from fans during his debut shows that they recognize he is United’s much needed signing. United’s midfield finally has a player with the courage, strength and size to stand up to the likes of Yaya Toure who has bullied them in recent seasons. He may have cost £4 million more than he should, but many in Old Trafford feel that he will make an invaluable addition to the team both offensively and defensively. Early signs are that he may also further drive the club’s record revenues with merchandising sales.

Granted, as long as Tom Cleverly keeps making side way passes and Anderson generously gifts possession to the opposition, United will continue to be in desperate need for a player with energy and drive to link attack with defense. However, if there is any positive to be taken from what seemed to be an outlandish search for a world class creative midfielder, it is that Moyes recognizes this as a major problem area that he will need to address soon.

For a team that probably has the greatest heritage of star wingers in history, United are now spoiled for choice as the young classy Zaha was added to the likes of Nani, Young and Valencia. Fitting for the stadium’s nick name “Theater of Dreams”, during the last league game against Crystal Palace, a dream debut was handed to a very exciting young prospect on the left wing. Akin to Christiano Ronaldo and Ryan Gigg’s debuts, the unearthing of 18 year old Januzaj will have got the pulse of many historical fans racing about the kind of future that awaits this gem.

Moyes has done well enough in the opening games of the season bar the loss at Anfield, a ground where he was never able to win in eleven years with his former club Everton. A defender by trade during his playing days, it is probably of little surprise that attack is the one area of the team that he would face the greatest challenge to spark the fluidity of old. As evidenced during the Champions League game against Leverkusen, if Moyes can tellingly find a way to create a balanced team that includes van Persie, Rooney and Kagawa, there is no doubt that this squad will be well placed to strongly challenge for honors domestically and in Europe. Once he brings home the first piece of silverware, Moyes will have taken the first step that may earn him years of loyal support from these fans that have enjoyed over two decades of consistent success.

The man behind the greatness

While we did not have the breathtaking finish of the 2011-2012 championship, there was an air of privilege in watching arguably the greatest manager of all time take charge of his final game.

A modest Ferguson had stated earlier in the week that he was surprised that Manchester United’s 20^th league title had been greeted by even wilder celebrations than the historic treble of 1999. The truth is, everyone in Manchester, whether red or blue would do anything to have one last glimpse at the man that helped make their rainy city the new capital of English football.

His drive for success especially earlier in his Old Trafford career gave an impression of a reign of terror that saw some star players that did not wholeheartedly buy into Ferguson’s philosophy unceremoniously kicked out. He was renowned for the “hairdryer treatment” dished out to players and yet many describe him as the father figure they leaned on for professional and personal advice. While his approach divided opinion, he succeeded in driving home the fact that no one was bigger than the club.

Sometimes considered arrogant for confronting referees or making strong statements against what he considered contentious decisions, it is probably of little surprise that Ferguson is very politically influential. His involvement with the labor party is well documented and he has been a major activist against policy that looked to bar Scots that lived elsewhere in UK from voting during Scottish elections. How ironic that failure to make a statement in the face of controversial refereeing that cost his side the most important game of his final season (against Real Madrid) would be his last personal penalty in football.

Ferguson’s passion and strong will were not restricted to just football and politics. Now that he is retired from football management, Ferguson will probably spend a lot of time in a hobby that nearly cost him his job in 2004. A bitter row with major United shareholder, John Magnier, over the ownership of racehorse Rock of Gibraltar demonstrated how hard Ferguson can be to crack.

A young 45-year old Ferguson was the fifth manager hired to try and replicate the glory days of Matt Busby. Ferguson’s self-belief was highlighted when on his appointment he had the audacity to declare that Manchester United would knock the mighty Liverpool off their perch. The cheering voices in the crowd would hardly have expected United to claw back a deficit of nine league titles during their lifetime especially when Liverpool won two additional titles before Ferguson won his first for United.

Ferguson is a great motivator with a unique ability to transfer his belief to his troops. A hallmark of Ferguson’s teams over the years has been their belief and fight to the very end of matches. This was epitomized by the club’s most famous victory with two stoppage time goals against Bayern Munich in the 1999 Champions League final to deliver Britain’s only golden treble.

Success for Ferguson at United did not come instantly and it is widely reported that he was on the verge of being sacked in 1989 when his side finished just outside the relegation places. Fergie, as he is fondly called, had spent three years establishing an infrastructure and changing a club culture that would fortunately for him deliver his first trophy during the next year. This patience and attention to detail would offer great success for several seasons to follow. How proud any surviving board members must feel for not succumbing to pressure to sack him when they see Sir Alex Ferguson 1,500 games, 26 years and 38 major titles later for United!

Perhaps his greatest strength was his humility and willingness to continuously be a student of the game. Ferguson has had a unique ability to reinvent himself and United with each challenge. From the professor at Arsenal to the billionaire owners at Chelsea and Manchester City, Ferguson consistently found a way to make United find that extra gear to get then to the promised land. At twenty league titles, United now proudly sit two above Liverpool and enjoy arguably the strongest brand in all of team sport!

Ferguson will without doubt be a great loss for the sport, but given his longevity and achievements, it is a well-deserved break. It is a tearful good bye from the multitude of fans he has established over the years but these should only be tears of great pride at an incredible job delivered by a truly great man.

Mid-Season Circus Shaping Close-Season Crisis

While many English Premier League (EPL) managers complain about the lack of a winter break, fans watch breakneck activity on and off the pitch with great excitement. Organizers may have only had holiday entertainment in mind, but the schedule congestion and squad reinforcements add an element of surprise that make the EPL arguably the toughest league in the world.

This mid-season’s headlines were dominated by lowly Queens Park Rangers (QPR) and Newcastle making six signings a piece. While QPR has recently enjoyed some really impressive results against table toping sides like Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester City, they can’t seem to conjure up a much needed winning streak. With just 2 league wins for the season and a massive 7 points away from safety, one can’t help but fear Harry may have facilitated a worse financial disaster for QPR than he did at Portsmouth.

It was however Newcastle’s mid-season signings that irked Mr. Wenger the most. They may have helped pick up points against major rivals Chelsea, but Wenger clearly believes it is his final game of the season against Newcastle will determine Arsenal’s Champions League destiny. With the odds now firmly stacked against Arsenal making it past Bayern Munich in this season’s UEFA Champions League (UCL), a top-four finish, Wenger’s “only trophy” of the last eight years is imperative. To help realize this goal, a single £8.5m left back was signed from Malaga to help restore the defensive solidity that gave Arsenal so much promise earlier in the season.

Events at Old Trafford, home of English football’s only other UCL survivor may play a key role in the long term UCL future of Arsenal and other UCL qualification contenders. While Manchester United’s sole mid-season purchase immediately loaned back to Crystal Palace was not of much concern to rivals, it is their current UCL adventure that places rivals in a “Catch-22” situation. Unless United have a good run during this season’s UCL, the English league which has lost its dominance of recent seasons runs the risk of losing their fourth qualifying place as Italy’s two representatives are well placed to advance to the next round. On the other hand, should United break the Real Madrid jinx to advance against them for the first time since 1968, they will have a good chance of winning the UCL final in Wembley Stadium which may not delight major domestic rivals. Domestically, United continue to do just enough to win each game. They depended on outscoring the opposition earlier in the season but now have defensive organization to help while they score less and grind out results.

United’s cross-town rivals had hoped to gain advantage in the title race from a lighter football schedule but have slumped to a 3 game winless streak that has placed them closer to 3^rd place than top of the table. Surprisingly, Manchester City’s only mid-season activity was the sale of maverick Mario! If their last game in the FA Cup is anything to go by, City’s unorthodox approach may have sparked life into their misfiring strike force. This weekend’s game against Chelsea may go a long way in determining whether the respective seasons of these two financial super powers will continue to promise success or if the season will diminish for one of them.

Like their billionaire rivals, Chelsea had a quiet mid-season transfer window by their extravagant standards, only adding £ 7million worth of talent. While Demba Ba has shown enough promise to give Chelsea hope of reviving their faltering season, it will take some doing to overcome the club’s miscalculated November gamble to sack Champion’s League winning manager, Di Matteo. A win against City on Sunday will place Chelsea just a point behind City in the league table, and following their Europa League success may finally get the crowd off Benitez’s back to rally them around their heroes. A loss will allow Tottenham to leapfrog them into 3^rd place and potentially allow Arsenal to exert significant pressure on them for 4^th place.

Besides Newcastle, Liverpool is the club that added significant quality to their squad. Sturridge and Coutinho signed for a combined £20 million should give Liverpool a realistic chance of returning to the Europa League next season.

Although the rest of the league signed a combined 27 players during the mid-season window, it is Southampton’s controversial managerial change that is threatening to make the biggest splash in the pond. Mauricio Pochettino has now made the Saints a threat against any opposition and if as expected they stay up this season, they will be the team to watch next season, probably generating more excitement than the Swans have done so far this season.

Bold Moves this weekend to shape destination of EPL Trophy

At this stage of the season, there seems little debate that the EPL title will end up at one of three possible destinations. In a weekend when all three clubs face potentially tricky ties, it is very likely that the club(s) that triumph will score a major psychological victory in the battle for the championship.

The first battle pits a typically fluid Chelsea against a rugged Stoke side that has not lost any home games this season.  While Chelsea boasts a decent record of 18 wins in 33 engagements at the Britannia stadium, they know they will have to fight until the final whistle to stand any chance of getting a result. Midfield is likely to be the key battle as Chelsea’s crafty midfielders try their wit against Stoke’s grit. Any opportunities they create will be pounced on by the predatory Demba Ba. Stoke’s direct approach is however likely to create just as much menace at the other end especially if Terry’s defense organizing skills are missing.

The second battle between Manchester United and Liverpool is considered a clash of history as English football’s two most decorated clubs go head-to-head. While United has won 44 of 87 matches that it has hosted between the two titans, they face an in-form Liverpool side that has enjoyed back to back 3:0 league victories albeit against lesser opposition. Ferguson’s defense selections will be critical to keeping the lethal Suarez quiet and of course there is the potential surprise of a resurgent Daniel Sturridge linking up with him for Liverpool. United’s approach will have to be bold to create supply lines to the prolific van Persie who if paired with the predatory Hernandez will enjoy a first double over Liverpool in four seasons.

The last title shaping battle is between the Champions, Manchester City and an Arsenal side that enjoys a 62% home-win record against City. The absence of Silva, City’s creative brain has been used to explain their last two barren outings at the Emirates, so his presence is likely to be critical to the outcome of this match up. Wenger on the other hand seems to be struggling to determine his preferred attacking setup with Walcott apparently upsetting the team’s shape during the last outing as he consistently drifted from the wing to join Giroud in the middle.

A Chelsea slip up could mark the end of their challenge if their Manchester rivals enjoy a positive return. A United double over Liverpool will keep their momentum going and potentially boost their confidence even more ahead of tough second round home fixtures against their title rivals. City on the other hand needs to win to keep the pressure on United ahead of the Champions League second round. The club’s that approach this round’s tough matches with boldness are likely to emerge with very valuable points that will offer tremendous capital in the psychological battle for supremacy in the race for gold.  

EPL Records usher in New Year!

2012 has concluded with several records firmly engraved English Premier League (EPL) history. One team that is probably more excited than others to see the back of the last year is Queens Park Rangers (QPR). An EPL record sixteen games without recording a first win of the season, now has QPR deeply rooted at the foot of the table, a massive 8 points from safety. Unless Harry Porter can find an astonishingly historic magic touch in the next half of the season, QPR are near certainties for relegation.
 
Chelsea on the other hand probably would have liked to hold onto 2012, as against all odds they finally collected the one trophy that continued to elude them despite Abramovich’s massive investment. They unfortunately followed this up with the unpleasant record of becoming the first Champions League holder to get knocked out in the group stages. Now under the guidance of former adversary, Benitez, Chelsea particularly started to show the metal of champions in the recent game against Everton. With the addition of a January signing or two, Chelsea are the one team that could upstage the Manchester giants this season.

Many expected Chelsea’s Champions League triumph to spur their wealthy blue cousins to a more successful second Champions League campaign. Manchester City however contravened to deliver the worst points tally by an English team in the history of the Champions League. Having lost out on even last season’s consolation Europa League qualification, City fans are banking on a less congested schedule than their title rivals to help aide their title defense.

 Having lost last season’s title on goal difference, it is of little surprise that Manchester United responded by adding more fire power to their attack. Plagued by a leaky defense during the first half of the current campaign, the two aspects of Manchester United conspired to deliver the highest scoring first half in EPL history (Reading 3 versus Manchester United 4). United will hope to keep their recently returned club captain, Vidic, healthy for the rest of the season to add much needed steel to their leaky defense as they bid to ramp up their goal difference. With a solid defense to complement the club’s prolific attack, United will be well placed to win a record 20^th Premier League title.

While QPR’s Harry has been complaining about the lack of fight shown by the clubs overpaid stars, Big Sam has rallied his troops to fight to remain in the EPL with every sweat they have got. In a clear display of fight and determination, West Ham received a record 8 yellow cards during their October match against QPR.

There is no doubt that 2013 will deliver even more EPL records. Will your favorite team deliver the history you crave or the history you dread? With Arsenal, Everton and Spurs locked in a fierce battle for fourth place, the final qualification spot for Champions League football, two will have to settle for the Europa League. Rapidly improving Stoke and Liverpool are likely to be involved in the battle for the last Europa League place. The Capital One League Cup also has the potential to deliver a fascinating surprise with a Swansea triumph that would see them earn a berth in next season’s Europa League.

Enjoy a Happy and prosperous 2013!!!!

Arsenal has Traded Silver for Glass?

Arsene Wenger described Islington Council’s December 2001 approval of an ultra-modern stadium at Ashburton Grove as "the biggest decision in Arsenal's history". Decorated with 13 League titles and 10 FA Cup medals, Arsenal fans accustomed to celebrating success did not anticipate that this big decision would confine them to such a long trophy drought.

Wenger who has enjoyed unwavering Gooner trust in over fifteen year’s managing the club assured fans that after sacrificing for a couple of years, the Gunners would emerge stronger than ever. With no trophies won since the 2006 move to Emirates stadium, even loyal fans have started to question this strength. Players like Vieira, Henry, Fabregas, Adebayor, Clichy, Nasri, Van Persie and Song left at their peak. In their place the likes of Squillaci, Arshavin, Chamakh, Koscielny, Santos and Gervinho have failed to consistently light up the Emirates with Arsenal’s trademark entertaining football. They were recently so out-passed, out-thought and out-fought by Swansea at the Emirates; many Arsenal fans must have felt the last aspect of their pride had been taken away.   

As fans endure by far the highest ticket prices in the league, they can now only take solace in the luxury provided by Emirates stadium. Their once hungry for success manager now feeds them to rhetoric about how finishing in the top four is as good as a trophy for Arsenal. He gives his once attentive audience assurances that the Gunners are probably the best team in Europe under Financial Fair Play regulations. Unfortunately, with wealthy club owners now able to manipulate sponsorship packages from organizations they are affiliated with, fans know that these new regulations will realistically not make their club any stronger on the pitch.

Arsenal’s major shareholders have unquestionably been the greatest beneficiaries of "the biggest decision in Arsenal's history". For many seasons, Wenger has been their most valuable resource as he delivered modest success while yielding tremendous returns on player and ticket sales, as well as appeasing fans with promising starts to league seasons.

After seven false dawns, the voices of discontent are now starting to get louder. To his credit, Wenger has responded by signing more valuable and experienced players in the last two seasons but the club has plummeted to a very lowly mid-season eighth position. Even fielding a very strong and experienced side against second division Bradford could not help steer the club towards the Capital One League Cup that Wenger previously looked upon with such disdain.

 As disgruntled fans now ask the Arsenal board to shed some of Wenger’s control over club affairs, one can’t help but wonder what it will take to save the last harmonious English Football giant from falling into discord. It would be crazy to bet against another top-four finish, as Wenger has a knack for consistently delivering at least this at the end of each season. Wenger however has a severe bout of food poisoning to Spurs’ players in May 2006 to thank for helping him keep this record unblemished.

My prediction for this season’s top four inevitably includes the two Manchester giants. With the talent at Chelsea’s disposal and the imminent return of Terry’s leadership, they should have more than sufficient firepower to stay in the top-four. Ordinarily my bet would be on a steely Everton to close out this season’s top-four but then their very influential Fellaini chose to commit a “Zidane head-butt”. However, if the suspension for the offence is three or less games, top-four may be another trophy that Arsenal kisses goodbye this season.   

UEFA’s Financial Fair Play to alter EPL Landscape?

With reports of a whopping £4.4 billion spent collectively by Premier League clubs on player transfers in the last decade, this week’s space is dedicated to evaluating transfer expenditure in relation to recent success. There has recently been plenty of talk about UEFA’s Financial Fair Play and how likely it is to be strictly implemented. Assuming UEFA implements its threat to banish from Europe’s prestigious competitions teams that spend more than they earn, one can’t help but imagine how this will impact the football landscape.

Top Six Spending Clubs on Premier League Player Transfer Expenditures in the Last Decade

Club	Players Signed	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Chel	£681m	4th	2nd	1st	1st	2nd	2nd	3rd	1st	2nd	6th
ManC	£582m	9th	16th	8th	15th	14th	9th	10th	5th	3rd	1st
Livrpl	£414m	5th	4th	5th	3rd	3rd	4th	2nd	7th	6th	8th
ManU	£352m	1st	3rd	3rd	2nd	1st	1st	1st	2nd	1st	2nd
Spurs	£350m	10th	14th	9th	5th	5th	11th	8th	4th	5th	4th
Arsnl	£214m	2nd	1st	2nd	4th	4th	3rd	4th	3rd	4th	3rd

It is of little surprise that the new found success at Chelsea and Manchester City has called for investment head and shoulders above their more historically successful rivals. With £681m and £582m respectively spent in the last decade by the new wealthy owners, the best talent has been assembled to transform these previous also runs into consistent challengers for domestic and continental honors. Consistent with the saying that “success breeds success”, these clubs have now started to establish an international fan base and increase earnings from merchandize sales, prize money and sponsorship.

If the success of both Chelsea and Manchester City is utterly attributed to financial investment, it is interesting to look at the fortunes of Liverpool and Arsenal, two more traditionally successful clubs that have taken slightly unrelated paths. Liverpool has invested £200m more than its rival but has endured more modest success, failing to qualify for the Champions League in the last three seasons! Perennial qualifiers Arsenal are marked out as one of the most fiscally responsible clubs, enjoying returns from the high capacity of their new stadium and the bounty associated with simply making the Champions League.

Liverpool fans have at least enjoyed some recent cup success, although the league cup, England’s least prestigious cup is all they have to show from the last six years. Arsenal on the other hand has to deal with a very frustrated fan base that was used to challenging for honors but now face the new reality of selling their best players every season as they take pride in simply making the EPL top four.

Tottenham, Arsenal’s North London bitter rivals has spent just £2m less than Manchester United, English Football’s most successful club of the last decade but only have the 2008 league cup to show. While a lot can be attributed to tradition and infrastructure established over years, United has spent a massive £62m less than Liverpool, their bitter rivals for English football’s most successful club in history. On top of the attractive cash prizes associated with their recent success in the EPL and Champions League, United enjoys the largest average match attendance with 75,387 per game last season, arguably the largest fan base globally to attract merchandize sales and very lucrative sponsorship deals. Nearest rival, Arsenal had 60,000 per game, while cash rich Man City and Chelsea had a meager 47,044 and 41,478 per game respectively. But even United has the small issue of debt loaded onto it by its shrewd owners to contend with.

Some pundits may rightly point to manager continuity as the reason behind United’s great success and Arsenal’s relative success considering their outlay and player turnover. It could however be argued that Chelsea the second most successful English club of the last decade has managed to attain this feat despite one of the highest manager turnover rates in the league, because it has assembled a quality squad.

There is no doubt that money is an essential ingredient for success, but it must be wisely combined with infrastructure and stability for a club to realize its full potential. While the setup of European football has until this season allowed money to bear a greater influence on success, implementation of the new UEFA regulations will tilt importance in favor of infrastructure and stability. Soccer academies, fan base and visionary managers may yet prove to be a more valuable resource to clubs than wealthy owners with very little knowledge about the game! Before we let ourselves get carried away with the dream of a fairer football world that Mr. Wenger at Arsenal has been holding onto for the last few years, it is questionable that UEFA will have the spine to address phony deals like Manchester City’s record £400m deal with Etihad Airways. Cheers Man City and Chelsea fans! Your wealthy owners will keep your houses “in order”. After all most fortunes are built by circumventing rules!